Agree with most of this article “issue with Covid19 is that when you should act, you appear mad & when you have to act, it is too late, as fatalities are sky-high & gross damage has already been done to healthcare system” hospitalisations and deaths spectator.co.uk/article/if-tie…
“This is because of the in-built delays in infections leading to hospitalisations and deaths.”
Statement I don’t agree with is “This makes Covid a guessing game: working out how today’s infections translate into tomorrow’s hospitalisations & deaths”. It’s not a guessing game. Mid-predictions based on data & lessons Feb/March made impact autumn/winter entirely predictable
Increased community transmission, leads to transmission in all age groups, that inevitably leads few weeks later to hospitalisations & deaths. Hence SAGE advice 21Sept. Not a guessing game.The data has been there.Challenge is making decisions & acting early & decisively & prevent
Lessons Jan & Feb, lessons from Aug & Sept, lessons from other countries. Trajectory of this pandemic more predictable in mid term than many epidemics. Got to have learnt those earlier lessons & not repeat in Dec-March, especially with vaccines & treatments becoming available
New Tier systems have good chance to work, if we respect them, start with more restrictions than some think are needed,get ahead & reduce transmission & not behind the curve. Take care over Xmas/NY. With vaccines/treatment can look forward to Spring next year with optimism & hope
But what we do through December will determine the trajectory of epidemic in Jan-March.
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