A thread to refute the nonsense spewed by #covid deniers/minimizers...
#1 "It's just the flu"

No, vast majority of studies disagree:
#2 "Really, it's just the flu"

Really, no:
#3 "Ok COVID is not just the flu, but it only affects the elderly"

No, even age group 25-44 is seriously affected:
#4 "There is a @WHO paper by Ioannidis that states the Infection Fatality Ratio is low"

Ioannidis's paper is flawed:
#5 "But if Ioannidis was right, the IFR would barely be superior to the flu"

No:
#6 "lockdowns don't work"

Vast majority of peer-reviewed, published science disagrees. NPIs (nonpharmaceutical interventions) do work:
#7 "Masks don't work"

70 papers and reviews disagree:
threader.app/thread/1279144…
#8 "Casedemic! Cases increase while deaths don't"

The total case-to-death lag (not just the clinical lag) is often more than a month. This has been repeatedly demonstrated over and over. Ad nauseam.
#9 "Deaths have increased so little compared to spring 2020"

Because the case ascertainment rate was low back then:
#10 "Sweden has succeeded"

No, Sweden has the highest cumulative deaths per capita (the ultimate metric defining success) of all Nordic countries. About 5 times or 10 times higher.

Finland/Norway/Denmark succeeded. Not Sweden.
ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da…..
#11 "Sweden had no lockdown"

While they had no formal lockdown, Swedes complied with FHM recommendations and did the social distancing thing

Few know, for example, that 67% of Swedes report working from home from March to September

See full list at
#12 "At least Sweden didn't destroy its economy with lockdowns"

Actually they had the sharpest GDP decline of all Nordic countries:
#13 "Sweden has no excess death"

Incorrect. The Swedish government officially reported 4800 excess death, so far:
#14 "Sweden has a small number of excess deaths"

The Swedish government officially report 4800 excess deaths. And compared to the last 120 years, this is the most excess deaths of any year since the 1918 influenza pandemic:
#15 "Lockdowns cause people to miss planned surgeries and routine health screenings"

This occurs even in countries that did not lock down:
#16 "The Infection Fatality Ratio has declined dramatically over time"

No, the CFR has, not the IFR:
#17 "People who die of COVID would have died in the next 6 months anyway"

No, on average 10 years of life expectancy is lost:
#18 "PCR tests are unreliable"

No, the “false-positive PCR” problem is not a problem
(Tweet re-posted to fix a typo)

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More from @zorinaq

30 Nov
The timing of when self-sustained transmission starts is crucial:

A and B are 2 identical countries implementing the same lockdown policy at the same time

If self-sustained transmission starts 𝟱 𝗱𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿 in A, then A will have 𝘁𝘄𝗶𝗰𝗲 the number of deaths Image
This is just math, based on various estimates that the epidemic doubling time of COVID was less than 5 days before lockdowns in spring 2020
academic.oup.com/jid/article/22…
In fact, because of this short doubling time, the timing between self-sustained transmission and lockdown is one of the most important factors that determines cumulative deaths per capita

This explains NYC and the Nordic countries. See next tweet.
Read 4 tweets
27 Nov
This chart shows Sweden's mortality rate & excess deaths since 1900

While COVID-19 *seems* to be a small bump in mortality, 2020 has the most excess deaths of any year since the 1918 influenza pandemic

These ~4700 excess deaths are supported by SCB:

1/n
The line representing average expected mortality on the chart is a LOWESS regression

Normally demographers use more sophisticated statistical algorithm (eg. Farrington) to do so. LOWESS is kind of a sloppy technique, but it works well enough

2/n
For more accurate results, I didn't include 2020 data in the LOWESS regression. Instead I cut off the smoothing at 2019, and assume that without COVID-19 the expected mortality would have continued its generally improving trend of the last decades through 2020

3/n
Read 12 tweets
25 Nov
Things that happened in Sweden in last 2 months:

• family isolation
• ban public events of more than 8
• cinemas/museums/gyms closed
• nightlife curbed (alcohol ban)
• Tegnell: yes to face masks
• nursing home visit ban
• + many restrictions

Sources: see links below

1/n
Family isolation: household contacts of infected persons not allowed to go to work (since 01 Oct) folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-pr…

2/n
Ban on public events lowered to 8 people since Nov 24 dn.se/sverige/allman…

3/n
Read 9 tweets
18 Nov
I dusted off my COVID-19 model (that predicted the Florida July wave) & applied it to Sweden

After today's data update from the Swedish Public Health Agency (FHM) I confidently forecast Sweden will surpass the peak of 100 COVID deaths/day they had in April

Hard to believe?

1/n Image
Specifically: by 25 December we will see Sweden has recorded 100 deaths/day around 11 December

(due to reporting delays, it takes up to 2 weeks past a given date to have a complete count of deaths on this date: )

2/n
My model is formally described in outbreak.flashpub.io/pub/method-of-…

It predicts deaths from cases alone, but let me explain in layman's terms how it works...

3/n
Read 17 tweets
16 Nov
Covid lockdowns appear to reduce suicide rates

Suicide rates decreased during the lockdown in Victoria, Australia (paradoxically despite self-reported levels of depression increasing??)

Suicides (and other deaths) have also decreased in Peru:
Victoria chart is from @sometimes_data — thanks!

Who else has data for other countries?
Suicide rates have also decreased in Massachusetts during lockdowns:

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

h/t @binaryanalogue
Read 5 tweets
25 Oct
͏@VoidSurf1 wrote a cool thread on Sweden excess deaths over the last few centuries. At first sight, his analysis seems correct... But there is a fatal flaw.

1/n
Despite the mortality data for 2020 being preliminary, he took great precautions to make it as accurate as possible. Good👍

Note how it is apparent that the month of April alone had 2000 excess deaths.

3/n
Read 8 tweets

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