No, Sweden has the highest cumulative deaths per capita (the ultimate metric defining success) of all Nordic countries. About 5 times or 10 times higher.
The Swedish government officially report 4800 excess deaths. And compared to the last 120 years, this is the most excess deaths of any year since the 1918 influenza pandemic:
The timing of when self-sustained transmission starts is crucial:
A and B are 2 identical countries implementing the same lockdown policy at the same time
If self-sustained transmission starts 𝟱 𝗱𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿 in A, then A will have 𝘁𝘄𝗶𝗰𝗲 the number of deaths
This is just math, based on various estimates that the epidemic doubling time of COVID was less than 5 days before lockdowns in spring 2020 academic.oup.com/jid/article/22…
In fact, because of this short doubling time, the timing between self-sustained transmission and lockdown is one of the most important factors that determines cumulative deaths per capita
This explains NYC and the Nordic countries. See next tweet.
The line representing average expected mortality on the chart is a LOWESS regression
Normally demographers use more sophisticated statistical algorithm (eg. Farrington) to do so. LOWESS is kind of a sloppy technique, but it works well enough
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For more accurate results, I didn't include 2020 data in the LOWESS regression. Instead I cut off the smoothing at 2019, and assume that without COVID-19 the expected mortality would have continued its generally improving trend of the last decades through 2020
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• family isolation
• ban public events of more than 8
• cinemas/museums/gyms closed
• nightlife curbed (alcohol ban)
• Tegnell: yes to face masks
• nursing home visit ban
• + many restrictions
I dusted off my COVID-19 model (that predicted the Florida July wave) & applied it to Sweden
After today's data update from the Swedish Public Health Agency (FHM) I confidently forecast Sweden will surpass the peak of 100 COVID deaths/day they had in April
Hard to believe?
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Specifically: by 25 December we will see Sweden has recorded 100 deaths/day around 11 December
(due to reporting delays, it takes up to 2 weeks past a given date to have a complete count of deaths on this date:
͏@VoidSurf1 wrote a cool thread on Sweden excess deaths over the last few centuries. At first sight, his analysis seems correct... But there is a fatal flaw.
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