The timing of when self-sustained transmission starts is crucial:
A and B are 2 identical countries implementing the same lockdown policy at the same time
If self-sustained transmission starts 𝟱 𝗱𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿 in A, then A will have 𝘁𝘄𝗶𝗰𝗲 the number of deaths
A and B are 2 identical countries implementing the same lockdown policy at the same time
If self-sustained transmission starts 𝟱 𝗱𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿 in A, then A will have 𝘁𝘄𝗶𝗰𝗲 the number of deaths
This is just math, based on various estimates that the epidemic doubling time of COVID was less than 5 days before lockdowns in spring 2020
academic.oup.com/jid/article/22…
academic.oup.com/jid/article/22…
In fact, because of this short doubling time, the timing between self-sustained transmission and lockdown is one of the most important factors that determines cumulative deaths per capita
This explains NYC and the Nordic countries. See next tweet.
This explains NYC and the Nordic countries. See next tweet.
NYC: high deaths/capita because self-sustained transmission started early:
Nordic regions (Norway/Finland/etc) are international destinations less popular than France/UK/etc, so transmission probably started later & helped them achieve low deaths/capita
https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1291110483555004416
Nordic regions (Norway/Finland/etc) are international destinations less popular than France/UK/etc, so transmission probably started later & helped them achieve low deaths/capita
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