I do wish I had something more "different" to say than: buying kept up into liquidations which dried up around 19900, people sold and the new levered longs got liquidated down to here. But that's pretty much the whole story so far today! Image
It is worth noting that if you noticed the liquidations dried up -- which was pretty possible -- selling was a great trade, because of how much of the pop was due SOLELY to those liquidations. There were a LOT, organic buying did not explain TOO much of this rally.
(At least from 19300 or so on to 19900, anyway -- there was plenty of organic buying before that, but by 19300 it was mostly liquidations.)
And the thing that ALWAYS happens when liquidations end is reversion: how much is unclear, and this is reverting more than is typical because a bunch of new levered longs are getting liquidated, too. But that was also predictable, it literally happened last week near ATH!
On some level this rally to near 20k followed by immediate reversion is like, an actual carbon copy of this one! Trading it the same way basically just worked -- hope you did!

It did recover a bit more this time than it did last time, and it's slipped into a "zone" without a ton of liquidations (given it's been here + all nearby prices recently this makes sense). Unclear which way it will go, has some room before TONS of momentum should pick up again.

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More from @AlamedaTrabucco

24 Dec
'Twas the night before Christmas, and try though they may
Not a token was mooning, not even AAVE
Market buys getting sent by the apes without care
In hopes that new all-time highs soon would be there
Our traders were summoned post-haste from their beds
While visions of making bank danced in their heads
SBF in his sweatshirt, and I in my tee
Had just downed something we're gonna label "coffee"
And amongst all the chaos, amongst disarray
Amongst the red numbers borne out of the fray
From all of the carnage arose one big loser
A coin with a regulatory accuser
Read 19 tweets
18 Dec
Many close calls later, BTC finally managed to break through $20k -- and it BLEW through it, barely slowing down til $22k. What was different this time?

A thread about man vs. machine.

As has been pointed out, I've been adamant that the rallies in the past month or so have been heavily fueled by rampant liquidations on both BitMEX and Binance. And they have! But they were also fueled by organic buying among U.S. investors, as has been a popular narrative.
If anything, the narratives surrounding various U.S. funds and other companies buying BTC have gotten *stronger* in the past week or two than they were around Thanksgiving. More and more funds have announced their crypto holdings or plans to acquire them.
Read 31 tweets
12 Dec
Yeah, among other problems with this analysis, it also just TOTALLY ignores the main reason that a company like Alameda (which does trades from all of these buckets all day every day) might have for trading net in one direction in a day on one market:
... and that reason is: it's out of line with some other market(s)! For instance, let's just take today: I just checked, and it looks like in the 12 hours I've been trading today, Alameda has net bought 100 BTC or so on the OKEx BTC/USDT market.
Why is this? Well, during this time, we were also fairly flat BTC deltas (as we quite often are), so the reason *surely* was not, as this report might have you claim, that we were net buying BTC today!
Read 13 tweets
26 Nov
What happened on Thanksgiving 2020?

(Alameda edition -- a thread about maximizing)

I'm sure it's no surprise that the threads I post here are "delayed" a bit -- the sorts of insights I'm sharing tend to be about what *happened*, but at Alameda we're trying to figure out what is *about to* happen. How did we do that today?
This tweet *sort of* describes Alameda's game plan headed into the day. We thought it was probably more likely to keep going down just based on Thanksgiving = no U.S. people to buy again -- but mostly? We expected momentum.

Read 26 tweets
26 Nov
What happened on Thanksgiving 2020?

(Market color edition -- a thread about why liquidity matters)
I'd describe the past few week as *dense*. A ton has happened -- the market's paradigm has shifted seemingly a dozen times, and the sorts of moves we've seen would be seen as wild if they happened in a *year* in other markets.
Often, periods like this feel like they're building to something -- it's intangible, but there's often a ton of volatility and then BOOM, something giant happens. The vol doesn't always subside (and once Thanksgiving is over I expect more action). But right now? Calmer.
Read 23 tweets
25 Nov
What happened here? Quick thread while I brace for impact, in a way.
Heading into the past few weekdays U.S. time, there's been a kind of predictable pattern. Everyone knows the narrative by now -- BTC is getting bought up by institutional investors and other entities in the U.S. So BTC has been going up in the morning! Makes sense.
But let's suppose that the world understands this pattern -- won't it just go up before that? Well, today that *did* happen -- from about noon HK time right until the big crash at the peak, BTC steadily rose, presumably as people expected BTC to get bought during U.S. hours.
Read 13 tweets

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