Important: ships came late so Nov is totally irrelevant but for SuX (which stands at -50% YoY but will get somewhat less bad with more countries reporting).
Again: Important: ships came late so Nov is totally irrelevant but for SuX (which stands at -39% YoY).
Expect DE, PT, LU tomorrow, UK on Fri, monthly breakdowns and EE next week. We still don't have GR Oct.
$TSLA $TSLAQ
3/ #Tesla 🇪🇺 Nov #'s now include DE and detailed CH
Again: Important: ships came late so Nov is totally irrelevant but for SuX (which stands at -33% YoY).
Expect LU and UK tomorrow, monthly breakdowns and EE next week. We still don't have GR Oct.
$TSLA $TSLAQ
4/ #Tesla 🇪🇺 Nov #'s almost complete, lacking FR SuX, model breakdowns in DACH, data from PL, RO, GR.
Again: IMPORTANT: ships came late so Nov is totally irrelevant but for SuX (which stands at -36% YoY). M3 is down 38% FWIW, but Dec will make up for most of it.
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2/ Shareholders of other OEMs are shareholders there and not in Tesla for a reason. They wouldn't accept $TSLA shares without guarantees that they can get out safely. However, financial engineering has always been Tesla's strong suit, and there is too much at stake here.
3/ Others argue that $TSLA would fail at a DD. Well, there are always some utterly corrupt C-suites, not necessarily only Italians, if you know what I mean. Also, 2/ answers the DD question too.
2/ But there is always some inventory left (logistics hiccups, rejects, even if everything gets sold). 2-3k seems to be the minimum now, so 27-28k is a theoretical maximum.
As we don't yet know December demand, I'll report back with my estimate later. Expect 24-28k.
3/ That 10-15% yearly M3 fall is after SuX drop of 30-35%. In a market where BEV sales ex-Tesla will have grown by 150% (2.5x).
2/ There is time for 3 more ships, but they need 1 (maybe 2) more to APAC.
The China window of opportunity has pretty much closed, no ship from Shanghai could reach Europe in time.
So 9 ships tops, unless Tesla a) ships from the East or b) sends cars from Shanghai by train.
3/ Although it's possible that they ship again from the East, I find it unlikely this time. They would have had plenty of time to ship from SFO, and shipping from the East is costlier and involves more risk.
Similarly, shipping from China by train is quick but pricey (and new).
♣5 ships have departed to Europe QTD (9 total in 19Q4)
♦️First 2 MIC ships en route
♠Inventory still available despite low # of ships
♥Almost final Oct #'s in