fly4dat Profile picture
1 Dec, 4 tweets, 4 min read
1/ #Tesla 🇪🇺 Nov #'s have started to come in.

Important: ships came late so Nov is totally irrelevant but for SuX (which stands at -50% YoY but will get somewhat less bad with more countries reporting).

$TSLA $TSLAQ ImageImage
2/ More #Tesla 🇪🇺 Nov #'s are in.

Again: Important: ships came late so Nov is totally irrelevant but for SuX (which stands at -39% YoY).

Expect DE, PT, LU tomorrow, UK on Fri, monthly breakdowns and EE next week. We still don't have GR Oct.

$TSLA $TSLAQ ImageImage
3/ #Tesla 🇪🇺 Nov #'s now include DE and detailed CH

Again: Important: ships came late so Nov is totally irrelevant but for SuX (which stands at -33% YoY).

Expect LU and UK tomorrow, monthly breakdowns and EE next week. We still don't have GR Oct.

$TSLA $TSLAQ ImageImage
4/ #Tesla 🇪🇺 Nov #'s almost complete, lacking FR SuX, model breakdowns in DACH, data from PL, RO, GR.

Again: IMPORTANT: ships came late so Nov is totally irrelevant but for SuX (which stands at -36% YoY). M3 is down 38% FWIW, but Dec will make up for most of it.

$TSLA $TSLAQ ImageImageImage

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More from @fly4dat

1 Dec
1/ This is a serious topic worth digging into. I've been discussing with friends for a while what the escape plan could be?

$TSLA $TSLAQ
2/ Shareholders of other OEMs are shareholders there and not in Tesla for a reason. They wouldn't accept $TSLA shares without guarantees that they can get out safely. However, financial engineering has always been Tesla's strong suit, and there is too much at stake here.
3/ Others argue that $TSLA would fail at a DD. Well, there are always some utterly corrupt C-suites, not necessarily only Italians, if you know what I mean. Also, 2/ answers the DD question too.
Read 6 tweets
26 Nov
1/ 8 #Tesla ships have sailed to Europe🇪🇺 this quarter, and it's unlikely that there will be more.

With inventory, that means they will have ~30k M3's available for delivery in EU. Compares to 31.8k last Q4.

$TSLA $TSLAQ
2/ But there is always some inventory left (logistics hiccups, rejects, even if everything gets sold). 2-3k seems to be the minimum now, so 27-28k is a theoretical maximum.

As we don't yet know December demand, I'll report back with my estimate later. Expect 24-28k.
3/ That 10-15% yearly M3 fall is after SuX drop of 30-35%. In a market where BEV sales ex-Tesla will have grown by 150% (2.5x).
Read 7 tweets
25 Nov
🚨🪄MAGIC🪄🚨!

The new #Tesla SR+ MIC with LFP battery needs 142Wh/km, while the old one needed 149Wh/km.

MIC weighs 1,874kg, US M3 SR+ weighed 1,720kg.

What a drag coefficient reduction a chrome delete does! Oh, wait, no chrome delete to be seen.

$TSLA $TSLAQ
And it's still a 4-seater at the very best.

h/t to my beautiful assistant who asked to remain anonymous.
Read 4 tweets
14 Nov
1/ 🇪🇺 weekend update.

TL;DR: #Tesla will likely lag 19Q4 by a wide margin.

There have been 8 ships to Europe for ~28.2k in 19Q4 and 6.2k in opening inventory, so $TSLA could deliver a record 31.8k M3's.

This year they are at 6 ships with a 7th being loaded.

$TSLA $TSLAQ
2/ There is time for 3 more ships, but they need 1 (maybe 2) more to APAC.

The China window of opportunity has pretty much closed, no ship from Shanghai could reach Europe in time.

So 9 ships tops, unless Tesla a) ships from the East or b) sends cars from Shanghai by train.
3/ Although it's possible that they ship again from the East, I find it unlikely this time. They would have had plenty of time to ship from SFO, and shipping from the East is costlier and involves more risk.

Similarly, shipping from China by train is quick but pricey (and new).
Read 7 tweets
13 Nov
1/ It's Day 1. Akio Toyoda, president of Toyota makes sashimi out of #Tesla.

$TSLA $TSLAQ
2/ It's Day 2. @jimfarley98, CEO of @Ford fires the second shot.

eu.freep.com/story/money/ca…

$TSLA $TSLAQ
3/ It's Day 3. A CEO or a marketing intern or someone in between at @VWGroup trolls Musk 69 times with atypical German humor.

Read 6 tweets
9 Nov
$TSLA weekly 🇪🇺UPDATE

♣5 ships have departed to Europe QTD (9 total in 19Q4)
♦️First 2 MIC ships en route
♠Inventory still available despite low # of ships
♥Almost final Oct #'s in

🃏#Tesla EU share down from 33% to 13.5% YoY

$TSLAQ
Read 8 tweets

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