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25 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
🚨🪄MAGIC🪄🚨!

The new #Tesla SR+ MIC with LFP battery needs 142Wh/km, while the old one needed 149Wh/km.

MIC weighs 1,874kg, US M3 SR+ weighed 1,720kg.

What a drag coefficient reduction a chrome delete does! Oh, wait, no chrome delete to be seen.

$TSLA $TSLAQ
And it's still a 4-seater at the very best.

h/t to my beautiful assistant who asked to remain anonymous.
Dieselgate, my @ss.

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More from @fly4dat

fly4dat Profile picture
26 Nov
1/ 8 #Tesla ships have sailed to Europe🇪🇺 this quarter, and it's unlikely that there will be more.

With inventory, that means they will have ~30k M3's available for delivery in EU. Compares to 31.8k last Q4.

$TSLA $TSLAQ
2/ But there is always some inventory left (logistics hiccups, rejects, even if everything gets sold). 2-3k seems to be the minimum now, so 27-28k is a theoretical maximum.

As we don't yet know December demand, I'll report back with my estimate later. Expect 24-28k.
3/ That 10-15% yearly M3 fall is after SuX drop of 30-35%. In a market where BEV sales ex-Tesla will have grown by 150% (2.5x).
Read 7 tweets
fly4dat Profile picture
14 Nov
1/ 🇪🇺 weekend update.

TL;DR: #Tesla will likely lag 19Q4 by a wide margin.

There have been 8 ships to Europe for ~28.2k in 19Q4 and 6.2k in opening inventory, so $TSLA could deliver a record 31.8k M3's.

This year they are at 6 ships with a 7th being loaded.

$TSLA $TSLAQ
2/ There is time for 3 more ships, but they need 1 (maybe 2) more to APAC.

The China window of opportunity has pretty much closed, no ship from Shanghai could reach Europe in time.

So 9 ships tops, unless Tesla a) ships from the East or b) sends cars from Shanghai by train.
3/ Although it's possible that they ship again from the East, I find it unlikely this time. They would have had plenty of time to ship from SFO, and shipping from the East is costlier and involves more risk.

Similarly, shipping from China by train is quick but pricey (and new).
Read 7 tweets
fly4dat Profile picture
13 Nov
1/ It's Day 1. Akio Toyoda, president of Toyota makes sashimi out of #Tesla.

$TSLA $TSLAQ
2/ It's Day 2. @jimfarley98, CEO of @Ford fires the second shot.

eu.freep.com/story/money/ca…

$TSLA $TSLAQ
3/ It's Day 3. A CEO or a marketing intern or someone in between at @VWGroup trolls Musk 69 times with atypical German humor.

Read 6 tweets
fly4dat Profile picture
9 Nov
$TSLA weekly 🇪🇺UPDATE

♣5 ships have departed to Europe QTD (9 total in 19Q4)
♦️First 2 MIC ships en route
♠Inventory still available despite low # of ships
♥Almost final Oct #'s in

🃏#Tesla EU share down from 33% to 13.5% YoY

$TSLAQ
Read 8 tweets
fly4dat Profile picture
4 Nov
1/ While you were watching elections, #Tesla silently hasn't shipped more cars to Europe🇪🇺. 4 ships have departed so far (from SFO and SHA combined), which is, surprisingly, only slightly delayed vs 19Q4.

$TSLA $TSLAQ
2/ There have been 8 ships to Europe in 19Q4. I don't see a reason why they couldn't send 4 more (or even more) this time, but there are no indications for that. 3 are more likely.

However, after 19Q3, "supply-constrained" Tesla started Q4 with 6.2k+ cars in inventory in Europe.
3/ That helped them deliver a record 30k+ M3's in 19Q4. With an estimated ~1.350 cars in inventory going into 20Q4, even 8 ships aren't enough to match 19Q4.

It remains a question why they don't send more ships. Supply should be ample. I dare to ask: demand?
Read 9 tweets
fly4dat Profile picture
2 Nov
1/ $FCAU accepted Honda in their European CO2 pool with #Tesla.

Some think it's bullish for $TSLA. In fact, it's neutral at best.

$TSLAQ
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/ FCA has bought all the credits from Tesla. Tesla couldn't have invited Honda to the pool alone.

Either FCA sells the excess credits that it committed itself to buy from Tesla to Honda, because it is now obvious that they don't need that many due to COVID, 500e and PSA next yr
3/ Or FCA agreed that Tesla and Honda cut a deal, but they get a pass on some of their obligations.

This could be marginally bullish for Tesla if they could sell these credits at a higher price, but I don't think that to be the case.
Read 7 tweets

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