♣5 ships have departed to Europe QTD (9 total in 19Q4)
♦️First 2 MIC ships en route
♠Inventory still available despite low # of ships
♥Almost final Oct #'s in
1/ While you were watching elections, #Tesla silently hasn't shipped more cars to Europe🇪🇺. 4 ships have departed so far (from SFO and SHA combined), which is, surprisingly, only slightly delayed vs 19Q4.
$TSLA $TSLAQ
2/ There have been 8 ships to Europe in 19Q4. I don't see a reason why they couldn't send 4 more (or even more) this time, but there are no indications for that. 3 are more likely.
However, after 19Q3, "supply-constrained" Tesla started Q4 with 6.2k+ cars in inventory in Europe.
3/ That helped them deliver a record 30k+ M3's in 19Q4. With an estimated ~1.350 cars in inventory going into 20Q4, even 8 ships aren't enough to match 19Q4.
It remains a question why they don't send more ships. Supply should be ample. I dare to ask: demand?
2/ FCA has bought all the credits from Tesla. Tesla couldn't have invited Honda to the pool alone.
Either FCA sells the excess credits that it committed itself to buy from Tesla to Honda, because it is now obvious that they don't need that many due to COVID, 500e and PSA next yr
3/ Or FCA agreed that Tesla and Honda cut a deal, but they get a pass on some of their obligations.
This could be marginally bullish for Tesla if they could sell these credits at a higher price, but I don't think that to be the case.
♣Very slow shipping (2 ships QTD vs 4 in 19Q4)
♦️NO: ID.3 sells more in 6 wks than #Tesla 3SX combined in whole 2020
♠MIC SR+ to replace MiUS in EU
♥Strong German demand seen
2/ @jaberwock2 estimated 60k cars to be needed for FCA to offset emissions this year. My guess is much lower (pre-COVID). They were working on the RNO deal at the time they signed the TSLA one, so they mustn't have signed anything definite for 2021 and beyond.
3/ FCA is making the new 500e's for around €20k (ex allocated fixed costs). If they gave a free 500e with every petrol 500 for the first 60k buyers, they'd be almost at half the cost.
1/ VW started to deliver ID.3 in Norway (and most other markets) exactly a month ago. Misses outdoing full year Model 3 deliveries by a full day (less than 100 units). Sad.
2/ #Tesla M3 won't be in the top 5 in Norway *this full year*.
Not leading the Dutch chart.
In fact, besides the UK, Sweden, Switzerland, Austria, Denmark and Iceland (and maybe Luxembourg), Tesla doesn't lead anywhere in Europe. Even this list will shrink in Q4.
$TSLA $TSLAQ
3/ In Europe, it's over for Tesla.
Bulls will say it's Giga Berlin. But it was COVID, the NL surge, Raven for the Model S, you name it. There are always excuses. Berlin won't change the trend long term unless Tesla cuts prices heavily.
1/ $TSLA sold 11,329 MIC in China🇨🇳 in Sep, bringing quarterly totals to 33,891. This compares to 29,953 in Q2, a growth of 9.6%, while production grew 13.3% and unsold inventory doubled.
The Chinese NEV market grew 67.7% YoY in Sep.
A thread.
$TSLA $TSLAQ
2/ With this, geo breakdown looks as follows. Overall growth is again driven by China, but Tesla could eke out some growth ex-China too.
3/ However, all that ex-China growth came from Model Y. Without Model Y, ex-China Tesla shrunk by 19.9%