Welcome to the "Omnirally". The development of Covid vaccines has helped nurture the single biggest monthly gain for global equities on record. But is the euphoria obscuring some festering economic challenges? My latest big read: ft.com/content/d78563…
For sure, the global economy has bounced far more strongly than we dared hope earlier this year, and corporate profits will follow next year.
But the optimism is palpable. Fund managers haven't been this optimistic that growth and profits will strengthen in nearly two decades.
Equity overweights are the highest since February 2018, when markets were basking in the US corporate tax cut afterglow, and cash reserves close to the lowest in seven years.
Bears are throwing in the towel. Short positioning in US stocks has never been lower, according to Goldman Sachs. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Even the bulls are nervous about how almost everyone seems optimistic at the moment.
And the few remaining bears, like GMO's Jeremy Grantham, are just awestruck at what they think is a picture-perfect, history book-worthy ticks-all-the-boxes stock market bubble.
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I only have one Valéry Giscard d’Estaing anecdote, from a conference at an Irish castle back in 2012. ft.com/content/b44c1c…
He was on a panel with a host of bigwigs, like @paulkrugman and Peter Mandelson. The Eurozone crisis was raging, and Giscard d’Estaing proposed that Greece take a two-year "holiday"from the euro to sort itself out.
I remember @paulkrugman visibly spluttered at what was obviously an insane idea - Greece perhaps should have exited the euro, but the idea of a temporary "holiday" was preposterous. But Paul was too polite to say how dumb it was.
Quants continue to ramp up the use of machine learning, according to a Morgan Stanley survey of clients.
Risk of overfitting (ML finding spurious correlations from data mining) is the biggest risk.
Unsurprisingly, quants are divided on factors. Think there's an element of denialism with the ones saying their experience has been positive over the last year. You can still be a believer and admit the last year has been profoundly shitty.
I have a new big read out, on the renewed challenges that active fund managers have had in fulfilling their promise to outperform in rockier markets - and the implications of that. ft.com/content/621d51…
There's now north of $12tn in index funds and ETFs, after a decade of breakneck growth.
Even that underestimates their heft. BlackRock estimated in 2017 that there is another $6.8tn of institutional or internal indexed strategies just on the equities side, so we're almost certainly talking well over $20tn in total now. blackrock.com/corporate/lite…
Since I know that what everyone *really* wants right now is the take of financial analysts, I’m going to share some of the first notes to hit my inbox. First up is Goldman Sachs, which thinks Biden will still get a $1tn stimulus package despite GOP-controlled Senate.
Here’s Oxford Economics, which warns that Biden is inheriting a “frail” economy.
SEB also thinks a $1tn stimulus package is coming, but expects the biggest change to be on the international arena.
We recently revealed Masayoshi Son's SoftBank as the "Nasdaq Whale" that created a splash in the US options market, and contributed to the summer stock market melt-up. But there are millions of "Mini Masas" that in aggregate likely dwarf its impact. ft.com/content/b330e0…
As the previous chart shows (a massive thanks to @jasongoepfert for the data), the volume of call premiums being traded in small retail-sized lots (10 contracts or less) has gone absolutely PARABOLIC lately.
@jasongoepfert Here is the share of small US equity options lots as a % of the whole market. Absolutely wild.