239 cases in hospital
32 in ICU
32 in ICU
Ireland's 14 day incidence rate now dropping to 79.7
NEW
Ronan Glynn says IT problem means cases today may have been underreported by "up to 100" overnight.
Ronan Glynn says IT problem means cases today may have been underreported by "up to 100" overnight.
In any event, lowest daily case total since the 12th September.
Prof Philip Nolan: Hospital admissions coming down but coming down very slowly.
Nolan notes ICU numbers have remained steady but haven't come down at all from the 30 mark in recent days/weeks.
Nolan notes ICU numbers have remained steady but haven't come down at all from the 30 mark in recent days/weeks.
Nolan: Today's figure is "almost certainly an under-reporting". He says that's why it's more important to look more at the 5-day, 7-day, 14-day averages.
"Huge improvements" compared to the end of October.
"We had hoped to be lower but we're not."
#covid19
"Huge improvements" compared to the end of October.
"We had hoped to be lower but we're not."
#covid19
"Deaths per day" remains high. On average 7 per day.
Principal reason we've had fewer deaths in second wave - "majority of cases in younger people (19-24s initially)
"We had close to 8 times incidence in younger people to older people."
Principal reason we've had fewer deaths in second wave - "majority of cases in younger people (19-24s initially)
"We had close to 8 times incidence in younger people to older people."
"Consistent outbreaks" among healthcare workers and in healthcare settings.
Significantly less in nursing homes than previous wave.
Significantly less in nursing homes than previous wave.
NEW
R number is "closer to 1" than it has been in recent weeks (somewhere in region of 0.8-1)
R number is "closer to 1" than it has been in recent weeks (somewhere in region of 0.8-1)
NEW
Modelling shows 300-600 cases per day in second week of January.
"Realistically we might see R number in range of 1.4 - unless we are exceptionally careful."
Modelling shows 300-600 cases per day in second week of January.
"Realistically we might see R number in range of 1.4 - unless we are exceptionally careful."
NEW
Nolan: What happens if R number goes to 2 over Christmas week?
"It leaves is in rapid exponential growth in early January.
800-1200 cases per day by mid-January.
Nolan: What happens if R number goes to 2 over Christmas week?
"It leaves is in rapid exponential growth in early January.
800-1200 cases per day by mid-January.
Nolan: The reason to share this is to show what's at stake. We've made great progress.
Says it's about being sensible and careful over the Christmas period.
Says it's about being sensible and careful over the Christmas period.
Breaking.
Nolan: We approach Christmas with HIGHER rate of infection than we would have liked. It's 3-4 times greater than we would have liked.
That brings me to fundamental point that we "really do advise extreme caution over contacts per week."
Nolan: We approach Christmas with HIGHER rate of infection than we would have liked. It's 3-4 times greater than we would have liked.
That brings me to fundamental point that we "really do advise extreme caution over contacts per week."
“Should people go to restaurants tomorrow?”
Holohan: We need to be careful with contacts... the inevitable socialising over Christmas with inter generational contacts... that’s going to lead to potential transmission that is avoidable.
Holohan: We need to be careful with contacts... the inevitable socialising over Christmas with inter generational contacts... that’s going to lead to potential transmission that is avoidable.
Tony Holohan: We are asking people who are thinking of coming home from abroad to avoid that if possible... we are asking people thinking of having holidays abroad and coming back over Christmas not to do that.
Glynn: We’re not telling people not to meet people, we’re telling them to limit it safely.
- Meet people outside.
- Meet one person at a time.
“We really need to think of family over the next number of weeks.”
- Meet people outside.
- Meet one person at a time.
“We really need to think of family over the next number of weeks.”
Asked Nolan about his “we can save Christmas comments” from October.
He says they still apply - “people need to make decisions and they will still be able to meet loved ones - and it can be really enjoyable.”
He says they still apply - “people need to make decisions and they will still be able to meet loved ones - and it can be really enjoyable.”
Holohan on vaccines: We’re in an exciting situation... it’s not going to do away with the need to follow the guidelines and maintain a high level of compliance.
How concerned are you with the level of misinformation around vaccines?
Holohan: We’re always concerned about that... the impact of vaccines has been nothing other than overwhelmingly positive in avoiding mortality, illness and disability
Holohan: We’re always concerned about that... the impact of vaccines has been nothing other than overwhelmingly positive in avoiding mortality, illness and disability
Holohan says he expects anti-vaxxers will step up campaigns “on the basis of no data” on COVID vaccines.
Glynn: It’s important to remember they’re a very small group... albeit a very vocal group.
He says it’s important not to mix that cohort with people who will have questions about this vaccine.
He says conversations aimed at that will be important in the weeks ahead.
He says it’s important not to mix that cohort with people who will have questions about this vaccine.
He says conversations aimed at that will be important in the weeks ahead.
Holohan says modelling data is what could happen. “We’re not trying to scare people... we’re implying very small changes to R number that we had before we went to Level 5.”
He appeals to people to focus on what they can do.
“This is not an inevitability.”
He appeals to people to focus on what they can do.
“This is not an inevitability.”
Nolan advises people “if possible” not to see any more than four people.
He says he can’t guarantee that would keep R number low but, again, every contact counts.
He says he can’t guarantee that would keep R number low but, again, every contact counts.
Holohan: “We’re worried for sure...”
He says context is different though - Ireland’s incidence rate is greatly improved.
“We think that in broad terms a Level 3 - if we maintain adherence to guidance, we can keep things like they are at the moment.”
He says context is different though - Ireland’s incidence rate is greatly improved.
“We think that in broad terms a Level 3 - if we maintain adherence to guidance, we can keep things like they are at the moment.”
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