Don't think there has been enough attention given to how important the blueing of the heavily Mexican-American parts of the US - AZ, CA, CO, NM, NV, TX - have been to the Democrats in recent years.

Yes, a thread.
The victories of Mark Kelly in AZ and John Hickenlooper in CO means that all 8 Senate seats in AZ, CO, NM, NV are now held by Democrats. In 2004 Dems held 2 of these 8 seats.

cnn.com/2020/12/02/pol…
In 2004 when George W. Bush won re-election he won AZ, CO, NM, NV. This year Dems won all 4 states and their 31 electoral college votes. That's a consequential swing. cnn.com/2020/11/30/pol…
In 2004 Democrats controlled 6 of the 21 House seats in AZ, CO, NM, NV. Today they control 14 of 23, a net gain of 8 seats. Without these 8 newly won seats Rs would control the House.
So, since 2004 Dems gains in AZ, CO, NM, NV have netted them:

31 Electoral College Votes
6 Senate Seats
8 House seats

Given how close everything is, this is a big deal.
Want to talk to one of the architects of these big Democratic gains in the Southwest?

Join NDN Friday at 2pm ET when we host AZ Rep. @RubenGallego for a live discussion abt how Democrats have gained so much ground in AZ and more broadly, the Southwest.
Broadening out this analysis to include CA and TX, Dem gains in AZ, CA, CO, NM, NV, TX fr 2004 to 2020:

Electoral College - Ds won 55 EVs in 2004, 86 in 2020
Senate - Ds had 4 Senate seats in 2004, 10 in 2020
House - Ds had 55 House seats in 2004, 69 in 2020

Big deal.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Simon Rosenberg

Simon Rosenberg Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @SimonWDC

2 Nov
Nov 2nd #Youthvote thread -

Increase in share of early vote 2020 vs 2016
18-29 - 18%
30-39 - 13%
18-39 - 16%

Total vote, 20 vs 16
18-29 10.4m/4.5m
30-39 10.9m/5.0m
18-39 21.3m/9.5m

GenZ/Millennials stepping up!

Folks at @Axios have a good take on the importance of what's happening with young people right now:

axios.com/blue-wave-deca…
Read 9 tweets
1 Nov
#Youthvote thread, Nov 1 -

Increase in share of early vote 2020 vs 2016
18-29 - 19%
30-39 - 14%
18-39 - 16%

Total vote, 20 vs 16
18-29 9.7m/4.2m
30-39 10.2m/4.7m
18-39 19.9m/8.9m

Gen Z/Millennials getting it done.

cleanprosperousamerica.org/young-voter-tu…
Young people are not just voting in very large numbers, but they are voting much more Dem.

Clinton 2016 was +19 with 18-29 year olds. Been +33-38 Biden in most natl youth polls. This is a big shift.

2020 #Youthvote = higher turnout, much more D.

Battleground states with highest Gen Z/Millennial vote share increase, 2020 vs 2016 (where have data):

MN 43%
AZ 19%
OH 18%
TX 18%
GA 9%
IA 9%
NC 3%

Want to emphasize - that this vote is up AT ALL, given huge early vote, remains remarkable.
Read 6 tweets
28 Oct
Daily #youthvote thread, Wed Oct 28.

14.2m Gen Z/Millennials have turned out so far in 2020. In 2016 at this point it was 6m.

Gen Z/Millennial share of the early vote has gone from 18.3% at this point in 2016 to 22.2% today. That's a 21% increase.

Very good stories about the youth vote in @cnn @politico @usnews yesterday (see yesterday's thread). Today we have this really good one from @NBCNews:

nbcnews.com/politics/2020-…
Moving our little youth data spreadsheet to the @CleanProsperous website (below). They are building it out a bit, adding raw vote totals, making it easier to use.

Thanks again to @tbonier @TargetSmart for providing all this great data.

cleanprosperousamerica.org/young-voter-tu…
Read 6 tweets
27 Oct
Daily #youthvote thread.

13.1m Gen Z/Millennials have turned out so far in 2020. In 2016 at this point it was 5.3m.

The Gen Z/Millennials share of the early vote has gone from 17.7 at this point in 2016 to 21.6 today. That's a 22% increase.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Good read on #youthvote from the always sharp @MilliganSusan.

usnews.com/news/elections…
Read 9 tweets
26 Oct
10/26 #YouthVote thread, using @TargetSmart data:

18-39 voted so far
2016 4.6m
2020 11.8m

18-39s have seen their share of overall electorate increase from 17.2% to 21.1% - a 23% increase.

Bigger slice of bigger pie. Motivated electorate.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Increase in share of early vote from 2016 to 2020 of 18-39s, by state:

AZ +14
FL +11
GA +19
IA +9
MI +155
MN +52
NC +12
MN +11
OH +21
PA - 9
TX +21
WI +23
Some notes:

Polls have been predicting high young voter turnout this year, and we are seeing it so far in the early vote.

Big early youth vote allows Biden campaign to now target lower propensity youth voters they may never gotten to - increases likelihood of historic turnout.
Read 8 tweets
25 Oct
Youth vote update 10/25. 18-29 y/o early vote share % increase from 2016, via @TargetSmart:

US +27
AZ +19
FL +14
GA +22
IA +0
MI +121
MN +36
NC +15
NV +11
OH +16
PA -42
TX +40
WI +15

In the battlegrounds, there are 6 states where Gen Z and Millennials (18-39) are over 20% of the early vote:

TX 24.5%
MN 24%
NC 22.9%
GA 21.9%
NV 20.7%
PA 20.6%

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
And in the new @dallasnews poll, which has Biden up 48-45 in Texas, his lead is being driven by an incredible performance with young people:

Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!