Don't think there has been enough attention given to how important the blueing of the heavily Mexican-American parts of the US - AZ, CA, CO, NM, NV, TX - have been to the Democrats in recent years.
Yes, a thread.
The victories of Mark Kelly in AZ and John Hickenlooper in CO means that all 8 Senate seats in AZ, CO, NM, NV are now held by Democrats. In 2004 Dems held 2 of these 8 seats.
In 2004 when George W. Bush won re-election he won AZ, CO, NM, NV. This year Dems won all 4 states and their 31 electoral college votes. That's a consequential swing. cnn.com/2020/11/30/pol…
In 2004 Democrats controlled 6 of the 21 House seats in AZ, CO, NM, NV. Today they control 14 of 23, a net gain of 8 seats. Without these 8 newly won seats Rs would control the House.
So, since 2004 Dems gains in AZ, CO, NM, NV have netted them:
31 Electoral College Votes
6 Senate Seats
8 House seats
Given how close everything is, this is a big deal.
Want to talk to one of the architects of these big Democratic gains in the Southwest?
Join NDN Friday at 2pm ET when we host AZ Rep. @RubenGallego for a live discussion abt how Democrats have gained so much ground in AZ and more broadly, the Southwest.
Broadening out this analysis to include CA and TX, Dem gains in AZ, CA, CO, NM, NV, TX fr 2004 to 2020:
Electoral College - Ds won 55 EVs in 2004, 86 in 2020
Senate - Ds had 4 Senate seats in 2004, 10 in 2020
House - Ds had 55 House seats in 2004, 69 in 2020
Big deal.
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Moving our little youth data spreadsheet to the @CleanProsperous website (below). They are building it out a bit, adding raw vote totals, making it easier to use.
Increase in share of early vote from 2016 to 2020 of 18-39s, by state:
AZ +14
FL +11
GA +19
IA +9
MI +155
MN +52
NC +12
MN +11
OH +21
PA - 9
TX +21
WI +23
Some notes:
Polls have been predicting high young voter turnout this year, and we are seeing it so far in the early vote.
Big early youth vote allows Biden campaign to now target lower propensity youth voters they may never gotten to - increases likelihood of historic turnout.