Why "small" numbers can have a big impact when you're talking about the census:
After the 2010 census, North Carolina lost the last seat in Congress to Minnesota because of a difference of nearly 15,800 people.
After 2000, Utah lost to North Carolina because of 856 people.
2. So, after leaked documents revealed "processing anomalies" affecting more than 1,000,000 records for the #2020Census around the country, why did the Census Bureau's statement emphasize that these anomalies "affect less than seven-tenths of one percent of records"?
3. In 2010, then-Census Bureau Director Robert Groves called the 15.8K difference between North Carolina and Minnesota "the largest discrepancy in half a century," according to the bureau's official transcript: www2.census.gov/programs-surve…
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NEW: The Census Bureau — using government records and not the #2020Census results — estimates that the U.S. population as of April 1 was somewhere within the range of 330.7 million to 335.5 million people
2. The U.S. population may have grown by as much as 8.7% since 2010, according to the Census Bureau's Demographic Analysis estimates based on gov't records.
3. People who died from COVID-19 before Census Day (April 1) were taken into account when the bureau worked on these estimates, said Eric Jensen, the bureau's senior technical expert for Demographic Analysis.
NEW: There are a number of open questions about #2020Census data quality raised in the @USGAO's latest report on the potential impact of COVID-19, plus the Trump administration's last-minute schedule changes that cut short counting and processing time gao.gov/assets/720/711…
@USGAO 2. COVID-19 forced delay of the count of people experiencing homelessness, which could result in misrepresenting where these populations were living on Census Day (4/1). @USGAO says bureau has not explained how it plans to document how that could impact data products' accuracy.
@USGAO 3. The #2020Census door-knocking in August into early September was conducted under Trump administration pressure to finish counting early using pay bonuses to field workers and other procedures that were not tested beforehand, so how they could affect data quality is unknown.
BREAKING: A third federal court has blocked Trump’s attempt to omit unauthorized immigrants from the #2020Census numbers used to reallocate House seats. #SCOTUS is already set to hear arguments Nov. 30 on Trump’s push. From the order by a court in Maryland beta.documentcloud.org/documents/2040…
2. A 3-judge court in Maryland found President Trump's census apportionment memo to be unlawful, while declining to rule on if it's unconstitutional. Panel includes 4th U.S. Circuit Judge Pamela Harris, plus U.S. District Judge Ellen Hollander and Judge Paula Xinis in Maryland.
3. The 3-judge court in Maryland has blocked the federal government "from transmitting to the President any data or information on the number of undocumented immigrants in each state intended for use in apportionment."
Don't forget: after this election comes redistricting — and we may soon see a radically different way of redrawing state legislative districts in Missouri that doesn't take into account children, noncitizens and other residents who are not eligible to vote npr.org/2020/11/06/931…
2. Presidential elections come around every four years, but the consequences of redistricting are locked in for a decade.
We are talking about lines and maps that determine how much political representation each person living in the U.S. gets for the next 10 years.
3. In general, political mapmakers around the country have long drawn state legislative districts based on the total number of people living in an area as determined by the census.
It's an open question whether it's legal to redraw districts based on only eligible voters.
Last night, Missouri voters passed a state constitutional amendment that could lead to the redrawing of legislative districts based on the number of U.S. citizens old enough to vote rather than of all residents. From Amendment 3: sos.mo.gov/CMSImages/Elec…
2. It's not clear exactly how "one person, one vote" will be interpreted when Missouri's voting maps are redrawn.
In general, states draw voting districts based on the total population, i.e., census numbers of every person living in an area, regardless of citizenship status.
3. Drawing voting districts based on the number of U.S. citizens old enough to vote "would be advantageous to Republicans and Non-Hispanic Whites," wrote GOP strategist Thomas Hofeller, who advocated for adding a citizenship question to census forms: documentcloud.org/documents/6077…
On Friday, the Census Bureau's internal experts released recommendations for how to comply with Trump admin's directive to create citizenship data that a GOP strategist said would be "advantageous to Republicans & Non-Hispanic Whites" during redistricting: www2.census.gov/ces/wp/2020/CE…
2. It's worth remembering the Census Bureau working group that wrote this technical paper was formed when the Trump admin was saying that block-level citizenship data (produced through a citizenship question on census forms) were needed to better enforce the Voting Rights Act...
3. ...and after the Supreme Court found that using the Voting Rights Act as the justification for the now-blocked citizenship question appeared to be "contrived," the Trump admin dropped that talking point and focused on redistricting. That history is summed up in this footnote: