Thread by @trvrb

The US is reporting over 2000 deaths per day from Dec 1 and I believe will do so consistently throughout December based on daily case loads above 120k starting early November. 1/4

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1326404894954283008

A drop in reporting over Thanksgiving weekend has made for some difficulty in directly comparing 7-day averaged deaths, but the trend is clear. Red bars are daily reported deaths from @COVID19Tracking and black line is 7-day sliding average. 2/4

The simple projection of 1.7% of reported cases into deaths 22 days later has remained largely accurate, although drop of reporting during Thanksgiving weekend is quite clear. We'll know soon whether 7-day average returns back to projection. 3/4

Today's 210k cases is a new record. If trend continues as it has, it's likely that ~3500 of these individuals will succumb to their disease and these deaths reported later in the month. 4/4

https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1334661580064239616