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Raoul Pal Profile picture
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4 Dec, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Bitcoin is potentially facing some serious technical headways... the daily DeMark is showing a cluster on 2 13's and a 9 and tomorrow might put in ANOTHER 13!
The weekly is stacking up top counts too...and a larger correction looks very possible
and concerningly, the monthly has put in a 9 top.
This all puts the odds of a larger correction in play, not a certainly, but top patterns across 3 time series are something to take seriously and if you are not a long-term HODLer, you might consider some caution in merited.

Let's see...

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More from @RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal Profile picture
4 Dec
MSCI Emerging Markets is the best looking chart in the world right now, outside of bitcoin. If this break is confirmed, then we can expect a decade or more of strong EM performance.
However, its very overbought (the dollar is very oversold) and the weekly DeMark suggests we might fall back for a bit to garner energy for the break. $EEM is the easy way to play it.
$EEM hasn't yet really turned against the SPX..
Read 6 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
28 Nov
I've love to get some Friday evening Fintwit thinking going so I want to pick your collective brains...

I'm mulling over The Death of Macro. Let me explain..
My view (right or wrong) is that rates aren't going up and are pinned at zero or negative for a long, long time. So, there is going to be no bond trading (see Japan and EU). The biggest trade in macro ever is nearly over.
The IMF and the CB's are talking about CBDC's and a new Bretton Woods. That is likely to be something around the original Libra idea of a world currency/currencies, based on a basket that includes the USD.
Read 10 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
17 Nov
So, how is the hero of our story doing?

Let's look at the SPX vs Bitcoin...Our hero has eaten the equity markets lunch, and all-time lows of SPX vs BTC lie dead ahead. Image
Our good friend gold has also been soundly thrashed by our super hero and new all-time lows of gold in bitcoin terms lie dead ahead too... Image
But the battle of the super villain versus the super hero is just being fought. The G4 Central Bank balance sheet is breaking key supports and Bitcoin is about to slay the BIG villain of our story (but expect a fight until the death). Image
Read 4 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
5 Nov
Bitcoin (Yes, again!) - here is the nice comparison to 2016/7.

Firstly, in log scale..
Then in price terms...
Here is the wedge breakout that I labelled as the worlds best chart a long time ago...
Read 5 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
3 Nov
The Election Risk - Blue Wave or Red Wave - the markets are going into this all one one side of the boat and that to me suggests that after the next 48 hours of mayhem, the risk is potentially the opposite (nothing to do with who wins).

Everyone is ALL in on reflation..
The short position in 10 year bonds is 4 standard deviations from trend (not adjusted for OI, but still record short by any measure).
Speculators are near record short the US dollar....
Read 8 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
28 Oct
Suddenly, everything changed... here is some thinking from my last GMI (Global Macro Investor) report:
I think we have now clearly started the transition from Hope phase to Insolvency phase (as per my Unfolding video and this update):

The big rise of the Covid in Europe, the US and Canada is about to exert economic pressures and extinguish the Hope phase of reflation dreams. Growth will not yet recover and a true economic recovery will take more than a post-election stimulus in Jan.
Read 16 tweets

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