More from @RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

3 Nov

The Election Risk - Blue Wave or Red Wave - the markets are going into this all one one side of the boat and that to me suggests that after the next 48 hours of mayhem, the risk is potentially the opposite (nothing to do with who wins).

Everyone is ALL in on reflation..

The short position in 10 year bonds is 4 standard deviations from trend (not adjusted for OI, but still record short by any measure).

Speculators are near record short the US dollar....

Read 8 tweets

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

28 Oct

Suddenly, everything changed... here is some thinking from my last GMI (Global Macro Investor) report:

I think we have now clearly started the transition from Hope phase to Insolvency phase (as per my Unfolding video and this update):

The big rise of the Covid in Europe, the US and Canada is about to exert economic pressures and extinguish the Hope phase of reflation dreams. Growth will not yet recover and a true economic recovery will take more than a post-election stimulus in Jan.

Read 16 tweets

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

27 Oct

Bitcoin is eating the world...

It has become a supermassive black hole that is sucking in everything around it and destroying it. This narrative is only going to grow over the next 18 months.

You see, gold is breaking down versus bitcoin...and gold investors will flip to BTC

And the Nasdaq is next... retail specs are going to flip to bitcoin as it eats techs lunch...

It has already destroyed the banks... they are now at their all time low versus our digital currency hero...

Read 12 tweets

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

22 Oct

Because life is not just about bitcoin, here are some bond charts to make you think.

I have used the 2001/2 chart versus current since Spring of last year and they helped me nail all of the moves in bonds.

Past performance is no guarantee but I still like these, a lot.

Here are 10 yr yields versus 2001/2, its time for yields to fall.

And due to the fact that the correction this time looks less on chart due to scale, here is the zoomed in version.

Read 6 tweets

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

18 Oct

Important Thread:

If you don't think Central Bank Digital Currencies are coming, you are missing the big and important picture. This is going to be the biggest overhaul of the global financial system since Bretton Woods.

Talking of Bretton Woods, this IMF article alludes to a huge change coming but lacks real clarity outside of allowing much more fiscal stimulus via monetary mechanisms.

imf.org/en/News/Articl…