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Raoul Pal Profile picture
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17 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
So, how is the hero of our story doing?

Let's look at the SPX vs Bitcoin...Our hero has eaten the equity markets lunch, and all-time lows of SPX vs BTC lie dead ahead. Image
Our good friend gold has also been soundly thrashed by our super hero and new all-time lows of gold in bitcoin terms lie dead ahead too... Image
But the battle of the super villain versus the super hero is just being fought. The G4 Central Bank balance sheet is breaking key supports and Bitcoin is about to slay the BIG villain of our story (but expect a fight until the death). Image
Like Highlander - There can only be one.

Bitcoin's performance dominance is literally overwhelming everything else.

If you listen carefully you can hear the sound of the bitcoin super massive black hole...

#Bitcoin #irresponsiblylong #notlongenough

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More from @RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal Profile picture
5 Nov
Bitcoin (Yes, again!) - here is the nice comparison to 2016/7.

Firstly, in log scale..
Then in price terms...
Here is the wedge breakout that I labelled as the worlds best chart a long time ago...
Read 5 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
3 Nov
The Election Risk - Blue Wave or Red Wave - the markets are going into this all one one side of the boat and that to me suggests that after the next 48 hours of mayhem, the risk is potentially the opposite (nothing to do with who wins).

Everyone is ALL in on reflation..
The short position in 10 year bonds is 4 standard deviations from trend (not adjusted for OI, but still record short by any measure).
Speculators are near record short the US dollar....
Read 8 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
28 Oct
Suddenly, everything changed... here is some thinking from my last GMI (Global Macro Investor) report:
I think we have now clearly started the transition from Hope phase to Insolvency phase (as per my Unfolding video and this update):

The big rise of the Covid in Europe, the US and Canada is about to exert economic pressures and extinguish the Hope phase of reflation dreams. Growth will not yet recover and a true economic recovery will take more than a post-election stimulus in Jan.
Read 16 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
27 Oct
Bitcoin is eating the world...

It has become a supermassive black hole that is sucking in everything around it and destroying it. This narrative is only going to grow over the next 18 months.

You see, gold is breaking down versus bitcoin...and gold investors will flip to BTC
And the Nasdaq is next... retail specs are going to flip to bitcoin as it eats techs lunch...
It has already destroyed the banks... they are now at their all time low versus our digital currency hero...
Read 12 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
22 Oct
Because life is not just about bitcoin, here are some bond charts to make you think.

I have used the 2001/2 chart versus current since Spring of last year and they helped me nail all of the moves in bonds.

Past performance is no guarantee but I still like these, a lot.
Here are 10 yr yields versus 2001/2, its time for yields to fall.
And due to the fact that the correction this time looks less on chart due to scale, here is the zoomed in version.
Read 6 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
18 Oct
Important Thread:

If you don't think Central Bank Digital Currencies are coming, you are missing the big and important picture. This is going to be the biggest overhaul of the global financial system since Bretton Woods.
Talking of Bretton Woods, this IMF article alludes to a huge change coming but lacks real clarity outside of allowing much more fiscal stimulus via monetary mechanisms.

imf.org/en/News/Articl…
And tomorrow, the IMF holds a conference on digital currencies and cross-border payment systems..

meetings.imf.org/en/2020/Annual…
Read 26 tweets

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