*The machines are listening.* Executives are now engaged in a cat and mouse game with AI-powered trading algorithms, and constantly changing how they talk to avoid negative words, phrases and verbal tics that the algos might react to. on.ft.com/3mFkFIO
There’s been an explosion of high-frequency machine downloads of US regulatory filings in recent years, as quant hedge funds simply train algorithms to instantaneously read and trade thousands of reports - volumes that no human portfolio manager could ever hope to read.
Man Group’s Luke Ellis is one of the CEOs who has as a result of machine reading been coached to avoid certain phrases and words.
This is becoming a phenomenon, with some specialised services saying that some companies’ investor relations departments are running multiple versions of statements through NLP models to see which “scores” best with the algos. But Sentieo’s Mazing thinks it’s a hopeless battle.
Here is a fascinating new NBER paper on the subject, titled How to Talk When a Machine Is Listening: Corporate Disclosure in the Age of AI. nber.org/digest-202012/…
Have written a little about this in the past. It turns out jargon and obtuseness = negative signal. And if analysts say "great quarter guys", it's not just bullshit, it probably was, and upgrades are coming. ft.com/content/23ae43…
Disappointingly though, executive politeness - the frequency of "please" and "thank you" for a period seemed to correlate well with returns - turned out to be a spurious correlation. ft.com/content/f14db8…
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I only have one Valéry Giscard d’Estaing anecdote, from a conference at an Irish castle back in 2012. ft.com/content/b44c1c…
He was on a panel with a host of bigwigs, like @paulkrugman and Peter Mandelson. The Eurozone crisis was raging, and Giscard d’Estaing proposed that Greece take a two-year "holiday"from the euro to sort itself out.
I remember @paulkrugman visibly spluttered at what was obviously an insane idea - Greece perhaps should have exited the euro, but the idea of a temporary "holiday" was preposterous. But Paul was too polite to say how dumb it was.
Welcome to the "Omnirally". The development of Covid vaccines has helped nurture the single biggest monthly gain for global equities on record. But is the euphoria obscuring some festering economic challenges? My latest big read: ft.com/content/d78563…
For sure, the global economy has bounced far more strongly than we dared hope earlier this year, and corporate profits will follow next year.
But the optimism is palpable. Fund managers haven't been this optimistic that growth and profits will strengthen in nearly two decades.
Quants continue to ramp up the use of machine learning, according to a Morgan Stanley survey of clients.
Risk of overfitting (ML finding spurious correlations from data mining) is the biggest risk.
Unsurprisingly, quants are divided on factors. Think there's an element of denialism with the ones saying their experience has been positive over the last year. You can still be a believer and admit the last year has been profoundly shitty.
I have a new big read out, on the renewed challenges that active fund managers have had in fulfilling their promise to outperform in rockier markets - and the implications of that. ft.com/content/621d51…
There's now north of $12tn in index funds and ETFs, after a decade of breakneck growth.
Even that underestimates their heft. BlackRock estimated in 2017 that there is another $6.8tn of institutional or internal indexed strategies just on the equities side, so we're almost certainly talking well over $20tn in total now. blackrock.com/corporate/lite…
Since I know that what everyone *really* wants right now is the take of financial analysts, I’m going to share some of the first notes to hit my inbox. First up is Goldman Sachs, which thinks Biden will still get a $1tn stimulus package despite GOP-controlled Senate.
Here’s Oxford Economics, which warns that Biden is inheriting a “frail” economy.
SEB also thinks a $1tn stimulus package is coming, but expects the biggest change to be on the international arena.