There was plenty of pessimism in Brexit-watcher circles after the Johnson-vdL 📞 made no obvious progress
But the 🔑 to progress isn’t Johnson-vdL
It’s Johnson-Frost
🇪🇺 position on the outstanding issues - 🎣, LPF & governance are well known. And were the position to change that takes some time - a back and forth between Barnier and capitals
🇬🇧 position on the outstanding issues is more ideological than practical, and providing the “taking control of our borders, laws and fish” line is respected, could be swiftly changed
All it would need would be for Johnson to give Frost more room to strike a Deal
And who was there at Chequers when Johnson was calling vdL?
Frost was
Don’t get me wrong - I’m not expecting thoughtfulness like that from Johnson. It’d be out of character
But that doesn’t mean today’s Barnier-Frost talks are hopeless
If by tomorrow morning there are no signs of progress it’s all very bleak. For then come the IM Bill and Finance Bill and the path to a Deal becomes almost impossible
As it is right now it only looks very bad
/ends
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OK, for your enjoyment, information or pain ahead of a crucial 48 hours in all things #Brexit, a new, mini #BrexitDiagram
This one only seeks to answer one question: will there be a Deal by the end of the year, or No Deal?
Headline Figures
Deal 1️⃣8️⃣%
No Deal 8️⃣2️⃣%
It assesses 4 things:
- outcome of today's Frost-Barnier talks
- does UK Govt fight on IM Bill or not
- Johnson-vdL 📞 on Monday
- Finance Bill Tuesday
It does *not* assess the capacity for side deals or for implementation periods, or assess what No Deal would look like or how long that might last - some thoughts about that on my blog here jonworth.eu/notes-on-the-t…
There’s only one route to a #Brexit Deal I can see now
Johnson - after 📞 with vdL - undoubtedly talked with Frost, who was with him at Chequers
Theoretically Johnson could have given Frost more scope to compromise than he has had to date
As @redhistorian rightly points out, all of this is Johnson’s call 🇬🇧 side - that might be politically problematic but it at least means a position could be changed fast (and changed faster than 🇪🇺 side)
So whenever the Frost-Barnier talks end this evening, what is said is *a vital sign* - has anything moved? If it has, Johnson gave Frost license to move. If the statement instead repeats the line on differences, then Johnson didn’t give Frost that freedom.
I know that reading the tea leaves, or waiting for white smoke is more fun (and easier) than policy detail...
... but while we wait for the former, let's have a go at the latter.
And I need your contributions.
A thread...
We know the main areas of disagreement preventing a #Brexit Deal happening - fish, Level Playing Field, and governance.
We don't know much about where the compromise is to be found on each.
So let's have a go.
Before starting on the three areas, a word about the UK approach - Johnson needs to be able to spin a Deal as taking back control of fish, laws and borders.
The last of the three is basically done, it's the first two that matter.
Surely it's not about *where* animals go (i.e. outside 🇬🇧 ought to be immaterial), but *how* long the transport is, and under what conditions?
Ashford to Carlisle worse than Ashford to Lille...
This is also the reason why 🇪🇺 wouldn't ban live *exports*
Kostrzyn nad Odrą 🇵🇱 to Berlin 🇩🇪 is 90 mins 🚛
Kostrzyn nad Odrą 🇵🇱 to Warsaw 🇵🇱 is 300 mins 🚛
And also providing humans keep eating meat (highly likely) & animals are not slaughtered where they're reared (also highly likely), you cannot avoid live transport of animals
Don't get me wrong - doing this humanely is *vital*
But banning *exports* is an island centric solution
First, will there be a Deal? I still think No Deal, short term, is marginally more likely than a Deal is, but as this is all in Johnson's head we can't really know currently
Second, the opportunity for a Deal if it's not struck by Monday lunchtime drops markedly - because ratification becomes even harder, and the UK Govt is adding provocation with the Finance Bill and IM Bill (that it could drop, but 💥 if it doesn't)