OK, for your enjoyment, information or pain ahead of a crucial 48 hours in all things #Brexit, a new, mini #BrexitDiagram
This one only seeks to answer one question: will there be a Deal by the end of the year, or No Deal?
Headline Figures
Deal 1️⃣8️⃣%
No Deal 8️⃣2️⃣%
It assesses 4 things:
- outcome of today's Frost-Barnier talks
- does UK Govt fight on IM Bill or not
- Johnson-vdL 📞 on Monday
- Finance Bill Tuesday
It does *not* assess the capacity for side deals or for implementation periods, or assess what No Deal would look like or how long that might last - some thoughts about that on my blog here jonworth.eu/notes-on-the-t…
No Deal would also not be by explicit decision - I expect neither side to formally end talks. But that due to the process, and an absence of time, that is where things end up - explained more in this jonworth.eu/brexit-negotia…
As ever comment most welcome - but please do bear in mind the limits of what this diagram is trying to do!
High res PNG and PDF files, the draw(dot)io XML, and the XLS for the workings are here - called Brexit End Game: jonworth.eu/series5
/ends
See theguardian.com/politics/2020/… that broke about 30 mins after I made the diagram... this moves things towards the right column
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The transport ministers from 🇩🇪🇦🇹🇫🇷🇨🇭, and the CEOs of the state-owned 🚅 operators in each (DB, ÖBB, SNCF, SBB), held a press conference about night trains today...
This slide summarises what they'd agreed
Don't get me wrong: night trains are *good*, and the trains on these routes will be ÖBB NightJet services, and ÖBB runs the best night trains there are in Europe.
I personally will be very happy to take these trains.
But so much for the good news.
Most of these routes have *already* been announced (Zürich to BCN, Rome, Amsterdam) - see presse.oebb.at/de/presseinfor…
The UK left, heading off to pastures new, leaving the EU largely where it was. The main prerogative for the EU was to make sure that what it saw as working - the four freedoms, essentially - were preserved. There is no problem with that.
There is also the problem that a positive future for the EU is fraught with problems - the EU does not have a complete and coherent vision for its own future, although it is likewise not going to collapse - it has a sort of defensive stability.
There’s only one route to a #Brexit Deal I can see now
Johnson - after 📞 with vdL - undoubtedly talked with Frost, who was with him at Chequers
Theoretically Johnson could have given Frost more scope to compromise than he has had to date
As @redhistorian rightly points out, all of this is Johnson’s call 🇬🇧 side - that might be politically problematic but it at least means a position could be changed fast (and changed faster than 🇪🇺 side)
So whenever the Frost-Barnier talks end this evening, what is said is *a vital sign* - has anything moved? If it has, Johnson gave Frost license to move. If the statement instead repeats the line on differences, then Johnson didn’t give Frost that freedom.
There was plenty of pessimism in Brexit-watcher circles after the Johnson-vdL 📞 made no obvious progress
But the 🔑 to progress isn’t Johnson-vdL
It’s Johnson-Frost
🇪🇺 position on the outstanding issues - 🎣, LPF & governance are well known. And were the position to change that takes some time - a back and forth between Barnier and capitals
I know that reading the tea leaves, or waiting for white smoke is more fun (and easier) than policy detail...
... but while we wait for the former, let's have a go at the latter.
And I need your contributions.
A thread...
We know the main areas of disagreement preventing a #Brexit Deal happening - fish, Level Playing Field, and governance.
We don't know much about where the compromise is to be found on each.
So let's have a go.
Before starting on the three areas, a word about the UK approach - Johnson needs to be able to spin a Deal as taking back control of fish, laws and borders.
The last of the three is basically done, it's the first two that matter.