Jon Worth Profile picture
7 Dec, 12 tweets, 2 min read
For weeks we have been saying whether there's a #Brexit Deal or not is in the head of Johnson

It still is
He's tried hiding from the problem
He's tried hoping the problem will go away
He's tried threatening the EU with the Internal Market Bill
He's tried calling von der Leyen
He's tried running the clock down to up the pressure on the EU
Now - as a last throw of the 🎲 - he's off to see von der Leyen
We know he's a showman. We know he thinks he can persuade the next person he talks to, before saying the opposite to the next person a few minutes later
And sorry - it's grim but it has to be said - he thinks he's an ace with women, and he's off to meet von der Leyen
Will all of this work? Will there be a Deal? 🤷‍♂️
Johnson is probably bumbling away to himself in Downing Street now, telling himself how Churchill would go to Brussels and lead the UK to victory

While the EU side is working out the limits of what it could tolerate on 🎣, LPF and governance
Deal is not inevitable

No Deal is not inevitable

But finally when this Johnson trip to Brussels happens we will know

Until then... it's all in Johnson's head

/ends

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More from @jonworth

9 Dec
And also being good at explaining complex stuff means you know your limits, and know who to ask when you struggle.
Here follows a list of people who've helped me in the past couple of weeks. I don't agree with all of them, all the time, but you should follow *all* of them - because above all they have the right *attitude* to solving complex problems!
Read 9 tweets
8 Dec
⏰ When is Johnson going to meet von der Leyen?

Now, 22h after their 📞 concluded, we still don't know

If it's *before*, *during* or *after* the European Council later this week can have a major impact on the outcome - explained in a new blog post

jonworth.eu/when-is-johnso…
If it's *before*, there's the danger that both sides have too big a gap to bridge - and Johnson has to return to London outwitted by a Brussels bureaucrat
If it's *after*, the UK thinks it might have gained an advantage by running the clock down further, but with time already really short that's a very dangerous game
Read 5 tweets
8 Dec
This being Brexit, no sooner has one hurdle been overcome, so the next rears its head

*WHEN* is the vdL-Johnson meeting going to happen?

Currently we don't know
There are two, theoretically three, options

Wednesday (or Thursday morning) makes most logical sense - it would allow vdL and Johnson to seal a deal, and then the European Council Thursday afternoon can agree it

Friday afternoon (or Saturday) I suppose is an option as fallback
The theoretical option - and I presume the one Johnson is pushing for and hence why we do not know the schedule yet - is he's in Brussels when the European Council happens, and he can even talk direct to the Heads of State and Government there
Read 6 tweets
8 Dec
A quick thread about night trains

The transport ministers from 🇩🇪🇦🇹🇫🇷🇨🇭, and the CEOs of the state-owned 🚅 operators in each (DB, ÖBB, SNCF, SBB), held a press conference about night trains today...

This slide summarises what they'd agreed Image
Don't get me wrong: night trains are *good*, and the trains on these routes will be ÖBB NightJet services, and ÖBB runs the best night trains there are in Europe.

I personally will be very happy to take these trains.
But so much for the good news.

Most of these routes have *already* been announced (Zürich to BCN, Rome, Amsterdam) - see presse.oebb.at/de/presseinfor…

Or have been even trialled (Vienna-Brussels) - see traintracks.eu/nachtzug-brues…
Read 9 tweets
8 Dec
I see "the EU side was too defensive" is the next argument people close to Number 10 are briefing to supposed experts, to shift a bit more blame

Brigid Laffan partly puts that critique in its place in this thread, but I'd also ask: if it a problem the EU was somewhat defensive?
The UK left, heading off to pastures new, leaving the EU largely where it was. The main prerogative for the EU was to make sure that what it saw as working - the four freedoms, essentially - were preserved. There is no problem with that.
There is also the problem that a positive future for the EU is fraught with problems - the EU does not have a complete and coherent vision for its own future, although it is likewise not going to collapse - it has a sort of defensive stability.
Read 7 tweets
6 Dec
OK, for your enjoyment, information or pain ahead of a crucial 48 hours in all things #Brexit, a new, mini #BrexitDiagram

This one only seeks to answer one question: will there be a Deal by the end of the year, or No Deal?

Headline Figures
Deal 1️⃣8️⃣%
No Deal 8️⃣2️⃣%
It assesses 4 things:
- outcome of today's Frost-Barnier talks
- does UK Govt fight on IM Bill or not
- Johnson-vdL 📞 on Monday
- Finance Bill Tuesday
It does *not* assess the capacity for side deals or for implementation periods, or assess what No Deal would look like or how long that might last - some thoughts about that on my blog here jonworth.eu/notes-on-the-t…
Read 6 tweets

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