Incidentally, lots of other stuff can be done with this data. For example, if we know P/E and P/B, then we can derive E/B or ROE. And plot it over a period of time. It will be quite revealing if you do that.
AAA bond yields and their comparison with E/P (the reciprocal of P/E or earnings yield) will also be useful.
One could also compute 3 or 5-year forward returns from investing at the valuation in each rectangle to see if there is some relationship with valuation multiples and forward returns.
Relationship between the valuation multiples of large caps, mid caps, and small caps can also provide food for thought. And so on...
Adding Vix (the fear index) would also be a good idea.
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Then I update them on my thinking about this business, management and valuation. This year, I spoke that (which I won't discuss here) and also about some additional lessons. Listing them here:
The importance of distinguishing between things that are under your control and those that you cannot control.
One student in my Forensic Accounting course wrote about manipulation in many large companies and how it pushes the retail investor into the corner. My (slightly edited) response:
All investing carries risk. Equity investing is no different. But look at the world around you. If you really want to compound your capital and beat inflation and make some real money, you have to invest in equities - which includes owning 100% of your own business by the way.
Yes, you will lose money because of misgovernance. But that does not mean that everyone is a crook. So you have to find ways to avoid getting stuck in businesses with governance issues. And even if you exercise all caution, you will still not be immune.
At one point during the talk, Neeraj showed an example when he deliberately asked a dumb question from the management of a company he was working on. Immediately I could relate this to Detective Columbo. See this: quora.com/How-has-the-Co…
One answer is that company engages in hedging by using derivatives as a legitimate business decision and claims the hedging cost as a tax-deductible expense.
I don’t think losses if any resulting from speculative trades using derivatives will be allowed as a tax-deductible expense.
Very valid points made by you. In the class, the example is a bit more elaborate. For example, I include "hafta" as a necessary expense. Now let me try to address your concerns.
In the original example the street vendor has fixed assets of 10k, inventory of 1k, margin over cost of 100%, and one day's revenue Rs 2k. Depreciation Rs 50. And Profit was Rs 950. Annual profit assuming 300 days of work was Rs 2.85 lacs. and the ROCE is an astonishing 2,590%
You said I did not count the salary of the person. Fair enough. So let's fix it. Let's retire the sole proprietor and replace him with an employee who will run the business for him for a salary. Today, you can hire security guards for INR 10k a month, and they have night duties.
One, there was pent up demand in Q2 because of shutdown in Q1. So earnings which would have occurred in Q1 moved to Q2. This is temporary.
Two, many costs were not incurred in Q2 or the money spent on them was much lower than what was spent in Q2 of the previous year. For example, travel and advertising and rents etc. Some of these cost savings may endure. Others won’t.