What @ClimateBen says is best available science, not fringe opinion. Sources below. And it doesn't happen suddenly AT the end of the 40s. It has already begun and worsens over time. It's a train wreck in slow motion with suffering and deaths and global destabilisation and fascism
I'll add 4 sources here. The most important one is the video abstract of a paper by @EdwardByers , part 2/2. Because only this source shows how important global solidarity today is in alleviating poverty so as to lower the vulnerability in climate hotspots.
Or check out IPCC SR15 table 3.4. The figures in millions of people exposed or exposed and vulnerable are for the year 2050 on the respective warming pathways toward 2100. So in all likelihood we're already in for the 2˚ columns.
We can lower the impact only in global solidarity
@nature condensed the figures into 3 stills for their primer on climate impacts, "The hard truths of climate change — by the numbers" nature.com/immersive/d415…
But it doesn't show how global solidarity and alleviating poverty from today onwards can significantly lower vulnerability
Here's an interactive map to explore climate risks and hotspots:
IMO, this info should be on newspapers' frontpage everyday as a constant warning where we're headed if we continue to hope for incremental efficiency improvements to our current system setup
Our governments /journalists can't / won't see the train-wreck-in-the-making. They, our neighbors, and our representatives only look in national bellybuttons where we won't find solutions to stave off global destabilisation and fascism on our way to 2050. We need a sense of🌍Us💚
Can the current system not handle the threats appropriately and in a spirit of global solidarity? No it can't. Look at the Covid fallout on societies in climate hotpsots and then: what does G20 to "help" them? Debt relief until June 2021 and IMF/Worldbank enforce privatisation🤬
It's not working. The intertwined dependencies and ideological paradigms are too stiff. Incremental improvement to current system setups is really not going to work. We need to pause the system globally at least temporarily to get the bulk of what's required done, incl solidarity
How will the system pause if the dependencies and paradigms are too stiff?
People will make it happen. Climate-aware people, citizens in all nations. Think Arab Spring, but in western societies. Think 1989. Think Belarus. Yes, we can. We'll do it with a knowledge revolution🌍✊
Just yesterday, Will Steffen, @ClimateHuman and other cli-sci demand that societal collapse as consequence of climate change be discussed openly. Why? Read the🧵.It's already happening. But not reported as such in Western media nor debated in parliaments. theguardian.com/environment/20…
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Devastating thread. Or threat. Wait till you hear this: it's not only destruction and CO2... per tonne of coal up to 25 m3 of methane is stored in its pores and released when the coal is mined. Don't believe me?
It's true. It's peer-reviewed. And there's more...
Not only is this a known fact, it is also a research field to make profitable use of all the released methane. So it must be a considerable amount of CH4. Right?
And there's more...
Even tho the molecules are broken down after 9-15 years and are no longer in the air to be measured, the concentration rises and rises...
How did the CH4 curve evolve?
A plateau from the late 90s until mid 2000s (already broken down), and then CH4 mounted higher and higher....
Ne 3-teilige Doku über Hitler und Ludendorff 1914 ff. Im 3. Teil wirkt Ludendorff immer mehr wie die Querdenker ^^ zdf.de/dokumentation/…
Die Doku wirkt oft bemüht dämonisierend. Dann wieder unterschlägt sie zB die Stimmung in den 20ern, Krawalle trotz Aufschwung. Faible / Schwäche zweier Historiker wird unangenehm deutlich; der Militärhistoriker zollt zB Respekt für Ludendorffs Person 1914/18, der 0 angebracht ist
Dass Völkisches und Judenhass in den 20ern noch keinen Widerhall in der allgemeinen Bevölkerung gehabt hätte und Ludendorff darum wie dargestellt 1925 die Wahl an Hindenburg haushoch verlor, ist mMn einfach falsch. Die Figur Hindenburgs ließ wohl Stabilität erhoffen, that's all.
Drum auch die Häufung all dieser Verschwörungstheorien bei Querdenkern. Das Ziel ist nicht, dass jmd alle oder ein paar glauben soll. Das Ziel ist die Erosion bisher gesellschaftlich akzeptierter Wahrheiten. Angst / Wut, die wir Normalos dagegen ausbilden, ist auch einkalkuliert
Um das nachzuvollziehen, muss man mal sich selbst beobachten, wenn man eine Presse-Konferenz von Lavrow zu Novichock oder Syrien anschaut. Alles, was einem dabei durch den Kopf geht, bzw die Empörung (oder gar tatsächlich Verunsicherung?), die man evtl fühlt, ist vorauskalkuliert
@KarlHeinzHasliP That most of the money flows as loans is hilarious, given the carbon debt the rich nations have piled up. #Equityoecd.org/dac/financing-… Throwing money at the problem is only 1 part. Nations must be able to spend it, too, eg have manpower. So it might be, €5bn/a can't be spent.
@KarlHeinzHasliP Eg, in a project in Tanzania, 1m new traintracks cost about USD300 (🇩🇪2000), which already includes the 🚆, go figure. Ofc, the vast USD difference has to do with established corruption levels in🇩🇪. But manpower cost shd be much lower in our target states. allafrica.com/stories/202010…
An idea. How about. On top of normal #ClimateFinance, we🇩🇪 announce a competition for best plans to replace FF and expand RE energy and public transport networks in developing nations size_of <= 200 mio citizens. We award 25€ pc/a for 10yrs to the top 10 plans.
It must be national-made plans, not colonial, and they can band together to compete as region, max size 200mio citizens each. We pledge knowledge transfer and open patents so they can build and run regional factories with the prize money, as well.
The prize shd be used for it.
The idea is to get as many as possible keen to make national or regional plans. And if they don't win - they still have said plan and can lobby for money in the normal #ClimateFinance channels.
And mega important is the creation of new livelihoods in climate hotspots.
Bremsenlos glücklich. Wie Edenhofer.
Der wusste bis vor kurzem nich ma, was in Paris steht zu ˚C, und wurde auf Twitter von nem Kollegen aufgeklärt.
Jetzt is er gekränkt und will seine letzte DICE-"Forschung" rückwirkend wichtig machen, die "rausfand", dass 2˚am billigsten wär🤦♀️
"auf 0 Treibhausgas Ausstoß bis 2050"🤦♀️
"aber man bleibt unter 2 Grad, der im Paris Abkommen formulierten Obergrenze"
Dass in Paris well below steht, lässt er nich mehr an sich ran. Trotz Aufklärung vom Kollegen. Hätt er das gewusst, hätt sein DICE-Spiel wohl 1.7˚"rausgefunden"?