Thread by @jburnmurdoch

NEW: could London be set for Tier 3?

@JasmineCC_95 has the story, and I’ve had a look at the latest data ft.com/content/34fda7…

The picture isn’t as clear-cut as one might think, so here’s a short thread on the key details:

At first glance, it seems pretty clear that London should go into T3. Overall, London case rates are currently roughly at the T3 average, with several boroughs showing rates that would be high even in the top tier.

but ...

... the question is not necessarily how case rates compare between the tiers *now*, but how current rates compare to *when tiers were introduced*

On that basis, London as a whole is still at very low end of T3 when it came in (grey circles), and most boroughs exceptionally low

In addition, there’s a clear divide within London. Wealthier Boroughs like Camden, Islington & Richmond already had low rates, and have fallen further, whereas places like Havering, Newham & Enfield had higher rates and have risen in the last two weeks.

Splitting London across tiers would be very difficult, but to the extent that London should go up a tier, there is limited evidence pointing in that direction for some boroughs, but zero for others.

Finally, a positive side-note:

The grey circles (case rates before tiers came in) are almost all higher than coloured circles (latest data), showing that new infections have fallen considerably since restrictions came in, especially in Tier 3 areas.

Tiers appear to be working.