Thread by @Milhouse_Van_Ho

There is no deadly pandemic in Canada. 2020 is shaping up to be an extraordinarily normal year in terms of overall mortality.

#covid19Canada #covid19 #COVID19Ontario #covid19qc #COVID19AB #COVID19BC

Thread:

Here we have the total number of deaths in Canada over the past four years. The most recent 12 months of data do not suggest a spike in deaths relative to historical trends.

Zooming out nationally over the past decade, we see that it's perfectly natural for deaths in one year to exceed deaths in the previous year.

***This does not necessarily = excess deaths.***

Look how often the blue growth line is above 0%.

So deaths are rising.

Is that due to population growth?

Population aging?

It's a bit of both, but not covid.

Here we have the chart you saw earlier now expressed as a rate per 100,000 people. Generally, a flatter trend in death rates relative to the trend in total deaths would suggest that population may be the key factor.

Across the decade, again we see that when we adjust for population growth, the growth trend is weaker.

Deaths are rising in absolute and relative terms. The aging of the population is likely the primary reason for this trend.