.@IHME_UW new projections of #COVID19 cumulative deaths in the US by April 1 have been reduced to 502,000. This welcomed decline is due to 2 factors. 1/8
covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-…
covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-…
In this week’s update, the impact of vaccination is greater due to information in the Pfizer FDA filing, which shows approximately 50% protection after the first dose, and data on a larger number of doses available sooner in the US. 2/8
The epidemic in the US appears to have leveled off in many Midwestern states while continuing to increase on the West Coast and in parts of the Northeast. 3/8
The leveling off in the Midwest is apparent in hospitalization data and case notifications but could be related to continuing data challenges after the Thanksgiving holiday. 4/8
Reduced mobility and more careful behaviors, along with selected mandates, may have been enough to bring effective R under 1 in some states. Effective R is still greater than 1 in 15 states. 5/8 
As of December 7, we estimated that 73% of people always wore a mask when leaving their home. Mask use was lower than 50% in Wyoming. We all can do much better. 6/8
If universal mask coverage (95%) were attained in the next week, our model projects 56,000 fewer cumulative deaths compared to the reference scenario on April 1, 2021. 7/8
42 states will have high or extreme stress on hospital beds at some point in December through February and 48 will have high or extreme stress on ICU capacity. 8/8
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