If bitcoin is the digital pristine collateral, the size of global gov bond market is $123trn.
Pretty amazing opportunity for bitcoin.
The size of the global custody system is $23 trn
That will accrue to bitcoin and more likely maybe ETH.
The settlements layer is over $4 QUADRILLIAN per annum
Probably BTC and ETH and other blockchains, including private ones.
The derivatives layer is another $1.2 QUADRILLION
Feels more like ETH than BTC as the dominant player.
Total equities traded per annum globally is around $70 trillion.
Tokens are more likely ETH and other protocols
Total size of FX market transactions per annum is $1.7 QUADRILLION.
BTC, ETH, XRP, etc
Total global debt market is $260trn.
Non-gov debt is likely ETH. This doesn’t include total lending market which would double this...
And then we can tokenise assets from real estate to intellectual property rights, from gaming skins to fixed assets, from securities to income streams
That is probably ETH
Then we can add in global supply chains and other commercial networks... another few hundred trillion
This is ETH, EOS and others...
And then we can add in trade finance, credit cards, stock lending and borrowing, repo markets for bonds, etc
Almost no one in crypto understands the size of financial markets.
It is never ever going to be winner takes all. It is near impossible as each blockchain has its limitations and trade offs and that suits the complexity of the financial world.
This is why I care about the entire DA space.
There will be many enormous winners, many failures, many scams, many false dawns but in the end, trillions and trillions of value will accrue across digital assets, tokens, protocols and crypto that tie all of this together.
The future is a super network of blockchains with the most pristine being bitcoin and the risk curve moves out from there.
Any other outcome accruing to one winner is nothing but false hopes and dreams.
My hunch is BTC is a perfect collateral layer but ETH might be bigger in market cap terms in 10 years for the reasons above.
Money and collateral is just the base layer. Everything builds on top.
The store of value is collateral, the trust layer and exchange of value is bigger
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So, if the hypothesis that key driver of asset prices is the devaluation of fiat currency it pays to look at assets against G4 Central bank balance sheets as the denominator, to determine what is a store of value.
Here is the G4 balance sheet - 2009 was when it all started.
Commodities have failed to maintain their purchasing power..
Bonds have failed to maintain their purchasing power...even after rallying for the last decade.
Bitcoin is potentially facing some serious technical headways... the daily DeMark is showing a cluster on 2 13's and a 9 and tomorrow might put in ANOTHER 13!
The weekly is stacking up top counts too...and a larger correction looks very possible
MSCI Emerging Markets is the best looking chart in the world right now, outside of bitcoin. If this break is confirmed, then we can expect a decade or more of strong EM performance.
However, its very overbought (the dollar is very oversold) and the weekly DeMark suggests we might fall back for a bit to garner energy for the break. $EEM is the easy way to play it.
I've love to get some Friday evening Fintwit thinking going so I want to pick your collective brains...
I'm mulling over The Death of Macro. Let me explain..
My view (right or wrong) is that rates aren't going up and are pinned at zero or negative for a long, long time. So, there is going to be no bond trading (see Japan and EU). The biggest trade in macro ever is nearly over.
The IMF and the CB's are talking about CBDC's and a new Bretton Woods. That is likely to be something around the original Libra idea of a world currency/currencies, based on a basket that includes the USD.
Let's look at the SPX vs Bitcoin...Our hero has eaten the equity markets lunch, and all-time lows of SPX vs BTC lie dead ahead.
Our good friend gold has also been soundly thrashed by our super hero and new all-time lows of gold in bitcoin terms lie dead ahead too...
But the battle of the super villain versus the super hero is just being fought. The G4 Central Bank balance sheet is breaking key supports and Bitcoin is about to slay the BIG villain of our story (but expect a fight until the death).