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Raoul Pal

9 Dec, 7 tweets, 3 min read

So, if the hypothesis that key driver of asset prices is the devaluation of fiat currency it pays to look at assets against G4 Central bank balance sheets as the denominator, to determine what is a store of value.

Here is the G4 balance sheet - 2009 was when it all started.

Commodities have failed to maintain their purchasing power..

Bonds have failed to maintain their purchasing power...even after rallying for the last decade.

Gold - it has not done a good job at offsetting the devaluation of fiat money...it has halved vs the G4 balance sheet.

US Equities, much as we all have figure out, have basically maintained their value and have offset monetary growth since 2009, (one of the reasons causing valuations to soar).

Global equities have underperformed due to dollar strength in a "best of a bad bunch" of fiat currencies.

But only bitcoin as an asset has ENORMOUSLY outperformed fiat monetary debasement, as it has the twin killer benefits of store of value plus call option on the future... #Bitcoin #irresponsiblylong

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More from @RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

11 Dec

A few things to make you think...

If bitcoin is the digital pristine collateral, the size of global gov bond market is $123trn.

Pretty amazing opportunity for bitcoin.

The size of the global custody system is $23 trn

That will accrue to bitcoin and more likely maybe ETH.

The settlements layer is over $4 QUADRILLIAN per annum

Probably BTC and ETH and other blockchains, including private ones.

Read 14 tweets

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

4 Dec

Bitcoin is potentially facing some serious technical headways... the daily DeMark is showing a cluster on 2 13's and a 9 and tomorrow might put in ANOTHER 13!

The weekly is stacking up top counts too...and a larger correction looks very possible

and concerningly, the monthly has put in a 9 top.

Read 4 tweets

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

4 Dec

MSCI Emerging Markets is the best looking chart in the world right now, outside of bitcoin. If this break is confirmed, then we can expect a decade or more of strong EM performance.

However, its very overbought (the dollar is very oversold) and the weekly DeMark suggests we might fall back for a bit to garner energy for the break. $EEM is the easy way to play it.

$EEM hasn't yet really turned against the SPX..

Read 6 tweets

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

28 Nov

I've love to get some Friday evening Fintwit thinking going so I want to pick your collective brains...

I'm mulling over The Death of Macro. Let me explain..

My view (right or wrong) is that rates aren't going up and are pinned at zero or negative for a long, long time. So, there is going to be no bond trading (see Japan and EU). The biggest trade in macro ever is nearly over.

The IMF and the CB's are talking about CBDC's and a new Bretton Woods. That is likely to be something around the original Libra idea of a world currency/currencies, based on a basket that includes the USD.

Read 10 tweets

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

17 Nov

So, how is the hero of our story doing?

Let's look at the SPX vs Bitcoin...Our hero has eaten the equity markets lunch, and all-time lows of SPX vs BTC lie dead ahead.

Our good friend gold has also been soundly thrashed by our super hero and new all-time lows of gold in bitcoin terms lie dead ahead too...

But the battle of the super villain versus the super hero is just being fought. The G4 Central Bank balance sheet is breaking key supports and Bitcoin is about to slay the BIG villain of our story (but expect a fight until the death).

Read 4 tweets