The #coronavirus didn't just win by infecting the body.
It won by infecting the mind.
[1/
Physically, this virus is not that lethal.
It kills ~1% of the ppl it infects.
About half don't even notice it.

Although it's ~10-15x worse than the flu, Ebola is ~30x worse than the #coronavirus

But that's not its weakness.
It's its strength.
[2/
By only killing a few, and not causing symptoms in many, most people's experience is that it isn't a big deal. That lets ppl's guard down.

But not only that.
[3/
By spreading mostly before ppl have symptoms, it's difficult to catch.
[4/
By not showing symptoms that are very visually striking—like for example bleeding through the eyes, or causing excruciating pain and screams—it doesn't raise ppl's instincts of fear.
[5/
By prying on older ppl—instead of the young, like the 1918 flu—, it severs fewer years when it kills. That gives many ppl a license to think it doesn't matter that much.
[6/
By infecting the respiratory system, it doesn't require specific actions. Humans spread it just by being.

It's easy to change some interactions.
It's much harder to avoid any interaction.
[7/
We can't see it.
We can't touch it.
We can't feel it.
We can't smell it.
We can't notice it.
Until it's too late.
[8/
The result:
Humans can't intuitively experience the virus.
We're forced to grasp it through data.

That goes against millions of years of psychological evolution.
Our defense—science—is a series of ideas that we've only had for a handful of centuries.
[9/
As a result, the #coronavirus has been a test, not of our healthcare systems—they've fought with science as well as they could—but of our social psychological structures.
[10/
Societies that incorporated data quickly and were able to compel citizens to modify their behaviors accordingly won.

Those that couldn't react to data quickly, or couldn't win the psychological war by compelling their citizens to do what's right, lost.
[11/
The #coronavirus has yielded a psychological war against humans.
Some strongholds stood unabated.
In most of the world, it won.
[12/12]

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More from @tomaspueyo

15 Dec
Viruses infect bodies.
Ideas infect minds.

The #coronavirus infected our societies because our social immune system against bad ideas is weak.

We need tools for science and truth to prevail. FASTER.
[1/6]
There are certain types of ideas that are like viruses: they’re bad for the mind, but pretty good at spreading.

They prey on our mental weaknesses. Our brain can’t stop itself from craving novelty, mystery, randomness, sex, violence, external enemies, social proof, scarcity...
Look at our media: mindlessly reporting cases and deaths every day, instead of the details of keeping politicians accountable about contact tracing.

Reporting antimaskkers as a huge trend when they’re a tiny minority (physically and intellectually).
[3/6]
Read 7 tweets
28 Nov
NY’s threshold to close schools is 3% positivity.

Apparently, its origin is unclear, and its usage polemic. So this is a thread about its origin, why, how it’s used, and a lesson about processes vs. goals.

nytimes.com/2020/11/23/pod…
Back in March, ppl had no idea what was happening. They took cases at face value. One of the big goals of the article “Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now” was to highlight how official cases was meaningless.

tomaspueyo.medium.com/coronavirus-ac…
Then, ppl realized cases were not the entire picture. Testing was crucial too. No tests, no cases — but lots of hidden infections. So they started reporting cases and tests.

But these are meaningless numbers in a vacuum, so they sought a ratio.
Read 16 tweets
27 Nov
A mutated #coronavirus different from the one prevalent in Wuhan took over the world. It was more infectious.

nytimes.com/2020/11/24/wor…
We’ve been lucky though. In the 1918 pandemic, the 2nd wave was likely driven by a mutation that was both more infectious AND fatal.
We already knew this was happening back in March. This image is from The Hammer and the Dance. The only thing we didn’t know then is which variant was going to prevail. Details.
Read 4 tweets
24 Nov
You can do it, Western countries!

"Whether you think you can or you think you can't... You're right!"

Boss Baby is the perfect inspirational leader for #COVID19


#YouCanBeatIt
"The path to success is not a straight line, but rather a wild ride."

"Aim for failure and you will always succeed."

Read 4 tweets
22 Nov
Capitalism vs socialism, markets vs gov... Most ppl think 1 is great and the other trash. That’s simplistic.

They’re tools adapted to different situations. We must understand them to know when to use them. Thread.
[1/
Capitalism is great. It uses natural selfishness to push ppl to be as productive as possible, promising them wealth. The + you produce for others, the + you get.

That is achieved by incurring both the cost and benefit of your initiatives.

Here’s the pbm
[2/
It creates a huge incentive to increase your benefits in ways that worsen society.

This happens in many ways. Eg:

1. Information asymmetry
You want cheap & delicious food. But what if it has ingredients that cause cancer? The producer knows it, but doesn’t tell you.
[3/
Read 25 tweets
18 Nov
Great news this week:
- Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective
- Moderna's vaccine 94.5% effective
- Immunity to #COVID lasts (unless the virus mutates enough, still unknown)

How should this change our decisions in countries like the US? Thread

nytimes.com/2020/11/17/hea…
One of the key arguments of Herd Immunity apologists like @ScottWAtlas or Anders Tegnell is that you can't stop the virus. That means it only stops killing people when 50%-80% of the population has caught it (66% in Manaus).
nature.com/articles/d4158…
If it had taken us 5 years to get a vaccine, it might have made sense: it might be too hard to control the virus this long. But now we can guess that by mid-late 2021, enough ppl might be vaccinated to stop it.
Read 7 tweets

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