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Juliette Kayyem Profile picture
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14 Dec, 9 tweets, 3 min read
Thread on Stochastic Terrorism: For years, the President of the United States Donald Trump has utilized his pulpit, twitter and his WH team to perfect a technique known as #stochasticterrorism, inciting random but predictable violence by supporters. His goal was this⬇️
His goal was to promote violence for political gain. That's terrorism. The first time I used the words publicly was in Oct, 2018 after the serial bomber arrest, but Trump was already a pro.
This:

dictionary.com/e/what-is-stoc…


2/
He was nonstop, through the years.
This:


This:


This:


3/
Over the years, Trump has deployed the tactic -- speak in ways that incite, but not so specifically that you can't deny it ("he was joking" say sycophantic GOP Senators and WH staff), allowing for plausible deniability. 4/
So we are stuck parsing Trump's words, forced into textualist debates about what he meant by "Liberate Michigan" or "Stand Back and Stand By." Meanwhile his supporters know EXACTLY what he means. We saw that in threats against Michigan Governor and violene in DC this weekend. 5/
It is now clear. It wasn't done FOR THE BASE. It was done FOR HIM. It was done to keep him in power, to delegitimize then incite, without saying so directly. His defenders say he's just taking it through legal process, but a month later it is hardly that. DC unrest proved that.6/
Where does the hate go? Trump may just get bored and go golf; leave the country to avoid litigation; or hopefully we just get bored of him. He won't have the megaphone to amplify and nurture and give those who seek violence a sense of place and shamelessness. 7/
But, Trump unleashed a rallying cry that supporters view as a 2nd American Revolution. Shame on them, too. A few public arrests and disruptions, and a whole lot of shaming, will help. Things change and can change. 8/
But if you asked me what is Trump's most successful legacy, on a weekend of DC violence and when statehouses had to protect electors from a violence he cultivated, it would be this: his power to incite terrorism and not have us even call it that. 9/9

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More from @juliettekayyem

Juliette Kayyem Profile picture
7 Dec
This news regarding Pfizer and the Trump Administration is not shocking in sense that they seem to never get supply chain, surge or details. But there is no crying in vaccine distribution. Some thoughts on how this impacts the supply chain. 1/
As noted in @theatlantic, this is all really complicated and these blips and delays are rough but not shocking. Manufacturing can be ramped up, but this is Biden's obligation to figure out surge capacity since we know Trump doesn't do that. 2/
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
Here is an explanation of how the Defense Production Act can be used ensure distribution surge starting Day One. Not just the vaccine, but needles, syringes, etc. I'm not trying to forgive Trump for this move, but we move on. Aren't you over him? I am. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Juliette Kayyem Profile picture
28 Nov
A few takeaways on questions from private sector and vaccination compliance. Obviously, we want as much voluntary compliance as possible. But this is also where "freedom" will have its limits and I'm all for it if vaccine is safe and reliable. 1/
Private sector rules are actually not too complicated. Private employers can just demand it as condition of employment; there may be ADA or religious accommodation issues but that's it. Federal grant recipients may face some additional regs but that will depend on Biden Admin.2/
Issue now that worries many employers is public distrust on safety. Ideally, statutes protecting leave related to virus would include time off for vaccination and vax reaction. Employers (free advice, folks) should encourage vaccine by giving time off both to get it and reax. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Juliette Kayyem Profile picture
22 Nov
THREAD ON VACCINE DISTRIBUTION AND STATES: Lots still to be determined, but worth knowing that states are mapping out planning which falls into 4 categories. 1/
1)Demand: This is tricky. I think polling showing high reluctance is likely to change with vaccine and new Admin. Local and national influencers will be key for tailored engagement. But general population not until summer so have to set expectations of timing as well. 2/
2)Allocation: High priority groups are easy though no definitive fed guidelines yet -- health care/medical; critical infrastructure/teachers/supply chain; over 65; high risk; general population; children (?; some trials with 12-18yos now). States will have some leeway. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Juliette Kayyem Profile picture
17 Nov
THREAD ON REPUBLICAN GOVS AND NEW MASKING RULES: Last night, Iowa's Kim Reynolds became another Rep. Gov to go from "never" to "now" masking rules since Biden won. Rep. Iowa, N. Dakota, W. Virginia, Utah, etc. recently changed course to mandatory mask mandates. Some thoughts 1/
It is not too late. Never too late. The desire to blame or think it is too little is not productive. From the beginning, without national guidance, it was govs who would have to lead the masking mandate during this Articles of Confederation response. 2/

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
In our push to get masking and social distancing requirements one state at at time, the single major determinative factor was not the scope of infection, but the Governor's party affiliation. Data proved it. On the "one damn state at a time" effort⬇️.
3/
Read 8 tweets
Juliette Kayyem Profile picture
2 Nov
THREAD: Today is activation day in public safety for Election Day. None of this is normal; most of it planned for. All good (enuf) so far. An incident does not make a war. Below thread I explained last week. Here is what you should expect for this one. 1/
Activations have stated of all major emergency operations centers, fusion centers and National Guard (if not done already). All that means is that we are prepositioning folks, no leave allowed, begin public presence, and get ready to ratchet up. 2/
Intel is not screaming trouble leading up to 11/3, Trump's language not particularly different than usual crap. Interesting silence in many areas which is good (some intel from white supremacist groups suggests they are standing down due to public safety positioning) 3/
Read 9 tweets
Juliette Kayyem Profile picture
31 Oct
Pro-tip: As public safety sets up command posts, National Guard deploys, cities board up, Walmart hides ammunition (!), language like this from Trump is what intel folks will be looking at and hoping more for. 1/
It's all madness, yes. But Trump is a master of language, of inciting without saying so. So, it will be interesting to see if this new language -- a man musing that he is better off leaving -- is repeated throughout weekend. It lowers the temperature 2/
and creates a narrative he can live with (and that's all that matters to him, right?). He still is using language of incitement, but it is tempered by the "drive away" stuff. His cabinet with access to means -- Barr, Wolf, Esper -- seem absent. So that's what to look for. 3/
Read 5 tweets

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