Here @GeorgeDibb and colleagues have dived a little deeper into a topic I touched on in April: equity bailouts for the covid-wrecked: instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/…
But - as with my piece, you may say - the devilish details are still to be all filled in 1/
No self-respecting HMT official will hear of a broad plan to do this without muttering the word "Lemons", and asking "um, at what price?"

If there is a £1m loan outstanding to the bakery, how much equity does that get you? All of it? Half of it? 2/
... because if the bakery is a good commercial prospect, a private investor will get it. If not, the state picks it up. Result: the state gets a portfolio of rubbish companies

And note how many different kinds of magic IPPR want the equity to perform: 3/ Image
Make money for the investor (the state)
Also, tackle longstanding issues like "low investment in the UK"
But don't run it narrowly for shareholders only (um, the state again)
But DO follow all the nice corporate governance rules 4/
Oh - and pursue an anti-foreign-takeover policy while you are at it. Which will NOT enhance the value of the company 5/ Image
And look at the long list of demands the new owners would like to make ... 6/ Image
... which will provoke a hollow laugh from businesspeople reading the next bit about "avoiding political influence" - what exactly is that shopping list about then? 7/ Image
this para encapsulates the difficulty of the task. Don't support firms that are too indebted (aren't they the ones that need it, though?) or that have not taken remedial action (but what if that = scrapping "long-term growth, retaining jobs, staff training and upskilling") 8/ Image
Bottom line: this is a valuable read from @GeorgeDibb et al. Here is the link again. ippr.org/files/2020-12/…

But for me it reiterates a message that should be written in neon all over Whitehall: INVESTMENT IS HARD. You are being sold a pup. Read about the lemons! /ends

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More from @Gilesyb

18 Dec
I spent six years in Government building the case for an Industrial Strategy, first with Vince Cable and then with Theresa May.

This report is my attempt to explain the thinking that needs to go into it 1/ instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/…
First, you need to pick your moment - but the moment can last years. Peter Mandelson and @vincecable each recognised that post Financial Crisis was the time to build the case for intervention that changes the way the economy works. Now is another such time 2/ Image
Let's face it: Johnson has always sounded like someone who ought to like Industrial Strategy, even if his "boosterish can-do-ism" largely focuses on concerns that other politicians going back to @Ed_Miliband have expressed 3/ Image
Read 18 tweets
15 Dec
OK, I have tried to model this more, and the bottom line is: without a test and trace system that absolutely jumps on rising cases when the number of cases is really low, the government has a really hard task. Brace for some ugly graphs: 1/
This models a Spring surge, harsh measures in April-May that crush the virus infection down, and leads to loosening in June and July.

Basically, the R rate rises fast when lockdowns end in June - but you can hardly see it .... Table shows measures (low = restrictive) 2/ ImageImage
and so further lockdowns etc are *politically impossible* at the point they may stop it rising. Imagine - 3 months of almost no cases, not many deaths - but the exponential force is building, and then BANG 3/ Image
Read 7 tweets
15 Dec
OK, so the @FT is in favour of new nuclear, but not at any price. How to judge this?

Here is my go ft.com/content/b528ba…

First, assume that each year we don't have a nuke, we burn gas instead, which produces carbon. How much? Here comes the maths:1/
A 3.2GW plant running for 8000 hours a year generates 25,600,000,000 kwh of electricity. And a kwh generated with gas produces .117kg of CO2.

So a year early = 3mTCO2 saved.

That is .85% of our current emissions...

or more like 1.5 % of our 2030 emissions. 2/ Image
How much is that worth? Well this doc assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… prices carbon in 2030 at £80. That would make those emissions worth £239m in 2018 £s

3/
Read 6 tweets
3 Dec
Fusion, the spillovers: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

A good example of the kind of document even a sceptical govt policymaker might be won over by 1/
The spinouts alone are fascinating 2/
Fusion in short is a neat manifestation of the sort of industrial strategy it is easier to believe in: not a nailed-on certainty*, but lots of spillover benefits, and they show their workings. 3/

*@PinsonRing is the account to follow for some smart scepticism
Read 4 tweets
11 Oct
You know I'm not an uncritical fan of the UK government, but the past fortnight has really brought home how ridiculous is any comparison between Johnson's performance and Trump's 1/
Just play side by side the videos after emerging from hospital. Johnson really brought home how dangerous it is

But so much more: even if the PM did shift to economy-concerns early (in retrospect), this is nothing compared to the END LOCKDOWN idiocy we saw over the Atlantic 2/
and while our lot has been accused of hiding behind scientists - well, that's way better than actually *hiding* the scientists. Or promoting false cures. Or dissing masks

Why is the UK gov't so badly rated then? Well lots of valid reasons but.... 3/
Read 9 tweets
26 Sep
This Economist piece is the best summary of the estimated knowledge of Covid so far and is worth showing some highlights economist.com/briefing/2020/… via @TheEconomist

1. We have had million recognised deaths, possibly there are a million more unrecorded 1/
2. We had no idea at the time but the world was probably seeing 1m infections a day at end Jan, a figure that may have peaked at 5m/day early May.

3. Probably 500m-730m have been infected so far, 6-9% of global population
4. The risk of death rises 13% with every year of age.

5. The ratio of official Covid deaths to actual Covid deaths varies. In the States, the likely figure is 30% above the official figure of 200k
Read 8 tweets

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