+UPDATE+

Conservative MPs being told by senior Cabinet Ministers that a EU-UK trade deal is now more likely.
2/

UK govt has agreed to EU's "level playing field" principles but with a sytem & form that would "respect British sovereignty".

Divergence from the agreed "level playing field" principles could be monitored without the EU being the "sole arbiter".
3/

Understand that UK govt thinks this should be enough to persuade some ERG members that the UK would then not face "unilateral punishment by the EU" - which was consided a key fear.
4/

Just to clarify:

Often more important than the exact content...the way news leaks out is the most revealing. The fact that UK Govt now discreetly briefing pro UK Govt media on this is an indication of serious movement here.
5/

As Ive said before..

If you're going to cave...make it as near to 1st January as possible....if you leave a long run-up you allow opponents to mobilize.

Any deal now would be fait accompli.

That was May's problem.
Johnson looks - at the moment - to have learnt the lesson.
6/

A number of people have queried this saying "theres no time to ratify" or even draw up the legal text yet...

...they're certainly correct so I would expect some form of "ratification extension".

You may recall someone suggesting this months ago.....

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More from @nicktolhurst

15 Dec
+UPDATE+

Republic of Ireland’s trade with Great Britain falls to historic low.

Ireland’s trade with GB (ie. UK minus N. Ireland) is heading for significantly less than 10% of its total world trade.

Note:
Intra-Irish trade still forms circa 10% of IRL-UK trade.
2/

Additionally,

Ireland is one of the few EU countries which has consistently recorded trade surpluses with UK (due to a variety of sectoral & historical reasons). This means that a reorientation of IRL to EU may hit UK firms more.
3/

What’s oft not appreciated in UK is Britain’s trade surplus with Ireland is - despite 🇮🇪 size - one of UK’s largest.

In other words - if UK is serious about trade - maintaining closest possible Irish trade access for UK should have been a key objective.
Read 4 tweets
5 Dec
+UPDATE+

European Commission President Von der Leyen
will issue a televised statement to Brexit....tonight following her personal phone call with Boris Johnson this evening.
2/

Statement due from Von der Leyen statement at 1900CET/1800 UK time
Read 5 tweets
1 Dec
The romantic love triangle between Clint Eastwood, Meryl Streep & Donald Trump.

A thread.
2/

In Sidney Powell’s legal case against the “huge vote rigging” of the November 2020 against Joe Biden...a number of eye witness accounts and data were used to back to up the claim that Biden received “over 100% of the total vote” in certain counties”.
3/

As evidence the example was given of incredible, statistically impossible vote counts in Edison county. A result that can only be explained by fraud.

There’s only one problem.

There is no Edison County - certainly not in Michigan..or anywhere.

So what is happening here?
Read 7 tweets
30 Nov
I know its a sore point with many people here but as someone who has leave voting family - people need to get real.

There is NO point now Labour trying to sabotage any Johnson deal.

1. It won't work
2. 90% of the population can't move on against Johnson until Brexit is past
2/

The problem many remainers have is they assume Leavers can be persuaded even at this late stage.
Its over.

The Newsnight watching class is circa 2% of population.
Leave voters will only be able to move on once Brexit becomes a present to be improved/critqued not a debate.
3/

The bad news:
The majority of Leavers are not going to support some "trick" to remain at this stage.

The good news:
No party can defend an existing disapointing present.
Once that starts things move fast.
Read 5 tweets
27 Nov
Yet another reason why this idea Johnson can somehow “hide Brexit pain inside COVID” won’t work.

A short thread.
2/

1st recessions - it seems mean to say this but many recessions leave most people completely untouched - indeed many people benefit. Most people don’t lose their jobs & IR tend to go down.

In other words economic pain is not equally dealt around.
3/

If Brexit causes a 5% decline of economic growth compared to what it would do in EU - then some people will be utterly unaffected while other sectors will collapse and some people will lose their jobs.
Read 9 tweets
27 Nov
+UPDATE+

Boris Johnson trying to remove Iain Carter from his position as head of research at Conservative HQ...

...Carter, you may recall, was Carrie Symond’s boss when she was forced to resign in 2018 for abusing her expenses.
2/

Rumour is that Boris Johnson is trying to manoeuvre Ross Kempsell in as Carter’s replacement.

Ross Kempsell has no experience in policy research - however he is Johnson’s regular tennis partner.
3/

Carrie Symonds has held a grudge against Iain Carter ever since her usage of taxis under false names of junior members of staff was exposed.

Symonds used taxis for her commuting & trips to bars & restaurants costing CCHQ thousands of pounds annually.
Read 5 tweets

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