1/ Trump, vaccine export ban, $DXY and stonks
COVID-dynamics for the next 4 months
IMO, there is a 70% chance that Trump will issue an America-first executive order on $PFE and $MRNA vaccines soon after FDA EUA on $MRNA vaccine.
COVID-dynamics for the next 4 months
IMO, there is a 70% chance that Trump will issue an America-first executive order on $PFE and $MRNA vaccines soon after FDA EUA on $MRNA vaccine.
2/ should that happen, PFE and MRNA would not be able to export COVID vaccine to other countries. until the need in the US is met.
This means most countries in the world, except for UK, Canada, Germany and China, would be denied access to COVID vaccines until March 2021.
This means most countries in the world, except for UK, Canada, Germany and China, would be denied access to COVID vaccines until March 2021.
3/ UK and Canada gambled by approving PFE vaccine faster than US FDA, to rush ahead of Trump export ban. This probably is the right decision, given the political dynamics.
Germany and China have their own productive capacity, but are unlikely to supply RoW by March 2021.
Germany and China have their own productive capacity, but are unlikely to supply RoW by March 2021.
4/ As a result, the economic recovery of 2021 will be very uneven next year, until the wider availability of vaccine after April 2021.
5/ Also, expect travel bans/restriction from unvaccinated countries against vaccinated counties (US, UK, CA, DE, CN) between April and July 2021, after outbreaks of COVID (e.g. on cruise ships) due to asymptomatic spread of SARS-COV2 from vaccinated people to non-vaccinated folks
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