1/ Trump, vaccine export ban, $DXY and stonks

COVID-dynamics for the next 4 months

IMO, there is a 70% chance that Trump will issue an America-first executive order on $PFE and $MRNA vaccines soon after FDA EUA on $MRNA vaccine.
2/ should that happen, PFE and MRNA would not be able to export COVID vaccine to other countries. until the need in the US is met.

This means most countries in the world, except for UK, Canada, Germany and China, would be denied access to COVID vaccines until March 2021.
3/ UK and Canada gambled by approving PFE vaccine faster than US FDA, to rush ahead of Trump export ban. This probably is the right decision, given the political dynamics.

Germany and China have their own productive capacity, but are unlikely to supply RoW by March 2021.
4/ As a result, the economic recovery of 2021 will be very uneven next year, until the wider availability of vaccine after April 2021.
5/ Also, expect travel bans/restriction from unvaccinated countries against vaccinated counties (US, UK, CA, DE, CN) between April and July 2021, after outbreaks of COVID (e.g. on cruise ships) due to asymptomatic spread of SARS-COV2 from vaccinated people to non-vaccinated folks

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More from @Barton_options

1 Dec
A teaser on my post-COVID fatigue syndrome article #LongCovid

esp. on the cognitive difficulty (brain fog)

IMO, very little to do with your brain, a lot to do with your liver.
1. critical supply of 5-htp from liver to brain gets cut off, as tryptophan is depleted by IDO and TDO by continued hyperinflammation.

The brain gets very short on serotonin as a result.
2. a secondary possibility for some is the disruption of Ach anti-inflammation pathway.
Read 5 tweets
12 Nov
1/ Seeing some serious concerns on Ant Financials' business model being raised in China this week.

Reportedly, post-IPO, Ant planned to operate like a commercial bank (as in underwriting consumer loans) with a CET1 capital <1% of its balance sheet.
2/ Ant's size will approach GSIB-level, most GSIBs have CET1 capital requirement >11%.
federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pre…

Also, reportedly Ant wanted to issue consumer-debt backed ABS in China, which made regulators even more nervous.
3/ It seems that the regulators believed that Ant has the ambition to be a commercial bank, an investment bank, and maybe a shadow central bank in CNY.

and thus we had the drama we saw last week.
Read 4 tweets
10 Nov
If rolled out quickly and being accepted widely, Pfizer and Mordena vaccines could save the lives of many 65+ yos in the US and Europe.

No idea on the availability in other countries

Note that this vaccine only prevents symptomatic/severe CoVid. It does not block spreading.
The most optimistic timeline: FDA EUA at EOM Nov to the earliest.
Rolling out to 65+ yo in general public in mid-Dec to the earliest.
2nd shot administered in early Jan to the earliest.
Recipient developing protective level of antibodies in mid Jan to the earliest.
Thus, most 65+ yos will still need to social distance for Thanksgiving and Christmas.

And i still expect covid cases to peak in late Dec and early Jan, at a scale many times bigger than we have today.
Read 4 tweets
6 Nov
The Danish Mink COVID makes one of the two antibodies in REGN-COV2 ineffective.

luckily, it has not been seen in human cases.

No selection pressure for this mutation to pervade in new COVID19 cases. so REGN Ab cocktail is still useful for the next 6-8 months.
more sophisticated Ab cocktails are probably needed 1 year from now. There will be an ongoing evolution of new antibodies and new vaccines in response to new mutations.

We definitely need more on-going genetic sequencing of new COVID cases.
In the mean time, anything that makes COVID milder helps us get through this pre-vaccine, pre-Ab period:

PPE, personal hygiene, supplements.
Read 4 tweets
28 Oct
People ask me how Chinese managed to control COVID for the last few months.

Well, people there have to run mobile tracing apps on their cell phone 24/7, which generates a pass for them to access any transportation, restaurants, malls, hotels etc.
A relative of mine recently did a sight-seeing trip in China, and ended up having to run 4 tracing app on her phone.

One from China CDC
One from the cdc of the province she lives
One from the cdc of the destination province
One from the Hubei CDC for her 5hr layover in Wuhan
If any lab-confirmed covid cases has came in close proximity of her, the tracing app will turn red automatically as soon as the lab report comes out. And anybody who contacted her would have the tracing app turning orange.
Read 5 tweets
28 Oct
Fasten your seat belt. Covid19 is going to explode in the US from now through the new year.

The worst of all, i am hearing a lot of anecdotes of primary-care physicians in smaller cities/rural areas managing covid symptoms as if it is flu.
Very little thoughts being put into anti-inflammatory and anticoagulant.

When its-just-flu bros get treated by its-just-flu physicians,
That's what I call a shitshow.

Death lags inflections by 4-6 weeks. Right now is not the time to be complacent.
A lot of lab resources and personalized care are needed to navigate the 2nd-3rd week of covid (hyperinflammatory and hyper-coagulation phase). Just imagine that big post Thanksgiving and post Christmas flux of elderly patients rushing the hospitals at the same time
Read 4 tweets

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