It is clear that a foreign government is holding American networks at risk. @SecPompeo took a necessary step attributing the attack to Russia. That step requires formalization. 1/
The United States government, ideally with at least one ally, must issue its written conclusion on attribution.
The stakes are too high to cloud responsibility, blame the wrong country, or divide our focus. The first step in solving a problem is clearly understanding it. 2/
If it’s Russia, as all indications suggest, the free world—led by the United States—must impose costs on the Kremlin. The imposition of costs is the right message. It is punitive and it has a deterrent effect against future such attacks. However, there is an important nuance. 3/
The sequencing of our actions is critically important. We must fully grasp the degree to which our pants are down and the integrity of our networks threatened. 4/
Regaining network control requires inspecting incoming and outgoing Internet traffic for malicious code and command and control signals between the hackers and the compromised networks and machines. 5/
We must deploy such active screening technology in-line, out-of-band, and outside the compromised networks. Once that’s in place for critical networks, then we will have greater latitude to punish the Kremlin without costly reprisals and escalation. 6/
For now, they are holding the Nation—and large parts of the world—at risk. That is unacceptable. Our long term goals must be to regain network integrity and control and to establish geopolitical deterrence. 7/
Until we start defending digital infrastructure as if commercial and government operations depended on it, we will remain adrift with malign forces controlling our destiny. A coalition of free world governments is ready for leadership. A global response is needed. 8/
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The theme here is wrongheaded. The guy quoted is looking at hospitalizations “every day.” That’s not enough. Lag and delay are hard concepts for people to understand, but future planning in this case is about mathematical forecasting (not modeling). We must look beyond our noses.
Every time we see a spike in new cases, it is followed by an increase in hospitalizations and deaths. But, there is a time delay between the two for several reasons.
At the individual level, a person takes time to get sick and die. At a macro level, the amount of virus in a given community and the type of people exposed can vary. Sometimes we see outbreak cohorts of young, healthy people without a lot of lagging hospitalizations and deaths.
On @ThisWeekABC today I shared some estimates on the number of infectious people in FL. Here are estimates for AZ, CA, GA, TX...
AZ: Cases as of 7/4 (94.6K); cases as of 6/20 (49.8K). Increase of 44.8K over 2 weeks. Assuming case ascertainment of 20%, true number of cases = 220K. Population of AZ = 7.3M, so roughly 3% of population is currently infectious.
CA: Cases as of 7/4 (254.7K); cases as of 6/20 (169.3K). Increase of 85.4K over 2 weeks. Assuming case ascertainment of 20%, true number of cases = 427K. Population of CA = 40M, so roughly 1% of population is currently infectious.
At the end of 2019, the Special Measures Agreement (SMA) between the U.S. & South Korean expired. Now the money has run out and negotiations are at an impasse. This affects the future of the largest U.S. overseas military base and the U.S.-led security order in East Asia.
When the SMA expired, there was enough money to cover the base support needs until April 1, 2020—THAT’S TODAY. The ROK money has run out.
President Donald Trump wants President Moon to pay $5 billion for 2020, 5x more than South Korea paid in 2019. Amb. Bolton delivered President Trump's demand and the President hammered it home with Moon at the UNGA last September. Moon refused, viewing it as exorbitant.
Update on #Coronavirus response. Three days ago, I tweeted the U.S. was poised to take the lead in coronavirus cases, and noted it was reasonable to plan for the US to top the list of countries with the most cases in ~1 week. Today, it appears we have met that sad milestone.
As I said then, and will say again, this does NOT make social intervention futile. It makes it imperative. Don't give up.
Also today, @POTUS sent a letter to all Governors foreshadowing the federal government's plan for the period that follows the 15 day social distancing guidelines (which ends in 3 days, on March 30th). There are three operative sentences in the letter. They follow:
1/ So, what will we regret not doing today when we look back in two weeks? #coronavirus perspective.
2/ Cordon sanitaire of NYC and messaging and planning aggressively for the other hot spots about to jump into exponential growth (like it appears New Orleans might).
3/ Disaster mortuary response team mobilization. Testing capacity, serological blood tests, and clarifying that we do NOT seek to achieve one single standard or single, across-the-board deadline of an Easter return to work.
The economic impacts of social distancing are very difficult, to say the least. Understanding the alternative is instructive. Truly understanding being key. Also, explaining the concept of the strategy is important.
The strategy was developed carefully in 2005-2007. It considered economic and social costs and contemplated a targeted, layered mitigation approach that would be implemented in a staggered fashion where and when needed. That was the initial conception, and it remains sound.
In this outbreak, the time it took to recognize the threat, coupled with the lack of testing and therefore large scale case ascertainment, left us collectively with no other choice but to issue nationwide, blanket guidance for simultaneous implementation of NPI.