Stay firm on #coronavirus
The economic impacts of social distancing are very difficult, to say the least. Understanding the alternative is instructive. Truly understanding being key. Also, explaining the concept of the strategy is important.
The economic impacts of social distancing are very difficult, to say the least. Understanding the alternative is instructive. Truly understanding being key. Also, explaining the concept of the strategy is important.
The strategy was developed carefully in 2005-2007. It considered economic and social costs and contemplated a targeted, layered mitigation approach that would be implemented in a staggered fashion where and when needed. That was the initial conception, and it remains sound.
In this outbreak, the time it took to recognize the threat, coupled with the lack of testing and therefore large scale case ascertainment, left us collectively with no other choice but to issue nationwide, blanket guidance for simultaneous implementation of NPI.
Accepting an unmitigated spread was not a credible or even practical option.
So, the question now is twofold, can we stick to our guns when the going gets tough, and can we manage a staggered deescalation with more aggressive containment in hot spots and a looser, but highly monitored return to business in cool spots with careful, nuanced messaging?
In hot spots, the containment effort ahead will require different testing, isolation, and quarantine standards in highly seeded areas. The deescalation and slow return effort will require serious contact tracing, testing capacity, and ideally a serological blood test.
Remember, there are no assumptions without risk. The reason Wuhan alternated its approach (tight, loose, tight, loose) and tested during loosening was to control against second waves and uninformed, premature re-entry.
That said, this is a balance. We must release the clamp on our economy, objectively speaking. The trick will be doing it carefully and in different degrees depending on the locality.
