1. The recent rise in BTC spot and implied volatility has led me to re-read @SinclairEuan's book, “Positional Options Trading”. I found the chapter on volatility positions quite interesting with some useful parallels for crypto vol markets.
2. If we're shorting IV, ideally we want a strike with the largest vol premium. Although deep OTM puts tend to have the highest IV, we need to sell a lot of these options b/c their vega is low. As a result, selling these teeny options in size based only on high IV is dangerous.
3. Another method is to “sell options with the greatest dollar premium over what the option would be worth if it were priced with ATM IV". This allows us to quantify how much of the premium in dollars we are collecting in terms of skew.
4. As an example, below is a table outlining the BTC-JAN1-2021 put strikes. We have the market price, value of the option priced with ATM volatility, and the volatility skew premium. The difference between the market price and ATM price gives us our vol skew premium in dollars.
5. Throughout this analysis I only focused on OTM calls/puts as they have better liquidity (puts are below spot and calls above spot). Short-term BTC maturities seem to have a negative put vol skew premium for strikes slightly below ATM but a positive premium for deep OTM puts.
6. As we move to longer-dated expiries, the put vol skew premium decreases across all strikes and becomes even more negative. The calls across all maturities, however, have a positive vol skew premium which appears to be increasing.
7. We can see similar behaviour in ETH. Short-term put vol skew premium starts off similar to BTC, but it declines and goes negative as we move forward in time (w/ exception of Jan 8 maturity). Across all maturities, the vol skew premium is much greater for calls than puts.
8. Below are the longer-dated ETH options. Put vol skew premiums tend to be much lower relative to shorter-dated maturities.
9. Based on this I’d consider calls to be richly valued w.r.t puts. A reason may be people selling puts for cash-flow which dampens low strike vols while also aggressively buying OTM calls with hopes of higher prices. Both cases suggest the market is expecting higher prices.
10. What do you folks think? Do you think the vol skew premium is justified here to buy up "cheap" puts? Also, in this case, to get +delta exposure would you rather sell a put or long a call? @SinclairEuan @MMKustermann @darshanvaidya @kyled116 @OrthoTrading @BitcoinMises

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More from @samchepal

14 Oct
1. Huge thanks to @digitalbrock and his team at @Round_Block for supporting me with some very useful #BTC @CMEGroup options data for research! I've been focused mostly on @DeribitExchange in the past but CME seems to target institutional folks which should lead to new insights.
2. Given I had access to historical time-series options data, one of my first thoughts was to implement @SqueezeMetrics's paper on Gamma Exposure (GEX) and see whether this metric is relevant to crypto markets. This will be a longer and more involved post!
squeezemetrics.com/download/white…
3. Market-makers generally do not like to have exposure to the price of the underlying as their business is focused on collecting the bid-ask spread. To stay in business, option market-makers hedge their delta exposures when buying or selling options.
Read 24 tweets
5 Oct
1. This is one of the best resources I've come across for implementing emergency hedges using options in a cost effective manner. Now more than ever I think Hari's wisdom can be applied to manage risk within the crypto options space especially before things get interesting...
2. As @zackvoell mentioned in this note, #BTC 180 day rolling realized vol is at nearly a 2 year low. Vol has several characteristic features across every market - one of them is the concept of mean-reversion.
3. We may not know when, but vol tends to go back to its average long-term value. Since realized vol is so low right now, I'd be risk-averse to place large short vol trades. It feels as though things have quieted down a little too much - seems a bit off.
Read 16 tweets
2 Oct
1/ Learned a lot about variance swaps by reading through @EmanuelDerman's awesome paper. This inspired me to replicate a variance swap term structure for #BTC by using options data from @DeribitExchange. Image
2/ During my research I read about the first #BTC variance swap between @GSR_io and @BlockTower which occurred in the summer of 2019. Given the lack of public data for these swaps, the only real way to get a decent price estimate is to use a replicating portfolio of options.
3/ These variance swaps allow for traders to make outright bets on volatility^2. Instead of using options (ie: straddles), with these products there is no need to delta-hedge. The payoff is as follows:

(Realized Variance - Strike Variance) x Notional
Read 6 tweets
1 Oct
1/ Spent some time exploring the market implied distribution for #BTC options trading on @DeribitExchange. This was a bit trickier than I expected but learned some interesting things along the way...
2/ I came across a closed form risk-neutral probability density (RND) solution from @EGHaug's detailed book on options pricing. I was surprised to learn that the RND is just the 2nd derivative of the option value wrt strike price. For those interested below is the formula. Image
3/ The limited number of options for #BTC Dec-25-2020 required me to linearly interpolate the IV across theoretical strikes. Instead of just 18 actual IV values, now we are able to estimate nearly 3,000+ IV data points as shown below. This will allow for a smoother RND plot. Image
Read 7 tweets
30 Sep
#BTC daily returns are not normal! After running a Gaussian kernel density estimation and comparing this to its respective normal distribution, we can see that #BTC has a lot of kurtosis as shown by the "peakedness" near the centre. Image
Also, Black Thursday and other extreme events occur much more often than a normal distribution would predict. This can be seen in the weight of the tails of the estimated distribution.
Theoretically, if the market is pricing in a normal dist the trader can make money here.

As a recap, the estimated dist has a greater probability of staying in the centre than the normal dist would predict. Also, the estimated dist has fatter tails than the normal dist.
Read 8 tweets
29 Sep
I've been thinking about the dangers of shorting long-dated options. These options cost more mostly due to their additional time value. Recall an option’s value = intrinsic value + time-value, therefore options with more time left will cost more.
Below are put prices for Oct-2020/11k vs. March-2021/11k. Despite both being OTM, March costs ~3x more than Oct. This is because the March option has 177 days vs. Oct only having 30 days left. March allows us to have optionality for 147 more days which is reflected in its price. ImageImage
It can be tempting to short these longer-dated options given their higher premium. If all goes to plan and these options expire OTM, then there is a nice premium which can be collected (or as the saying goes these days - we can "harvest" these premiums).
Read 8 tweets

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