1/n It is our view with @LDjaparidze that lockdowns cause harm in subtle way. They do stop the virus, mind you, but when it eventually circulates again (and until vaccination it always does) vulnerable willpower to isolate is gone.
2/n Death minimizing is about virus circulation among healthy <60 while vulnerable *are still willing* to isolate at high levels. That is exactly what didn't happen in Argentina after the 5th month of lockdown.
3/n Oblivious to most (even the expert epidemiologists) after lockdowns death minimizing requires overshooting healthy <60 infections while vulnerable isolate at very high levels. None of that is happening.
4/n To add fuel to the fire, everybody was happy to know in later papers that asymptomatic are hardly contagious. Asymptomatic non being contagious requires even lower isolations (negative) to healthy <60 to death minimizing. While HIT remains at 70%. Mind blowing. I know.
5/n Either if you are on one side or the other, pick your fights with knowledge, because every single mistake increases the deaths and we have made lots of them since this started on December 2019.
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1/ The first rule of Lockdown Club is: You do not talk about deaths per million. The second rule of Lockdown Club is: You do not talk about deaths per million.
2/ Third rule of Lockdown Club: someone yells Sweden or herd immunity, you point out the other Nordics. Fourth rule: only two metrics to a discussion, cases and cases.
3/ Fifth rule: one lockdown per season, fellas. Sixth rule: no deaths, no herd. Seventh rule: lockdowns will go on as long as they have to.
Controversial opinion: those that say its not possible to shield the vulnerable, also won't be able to prove if there is a difference (or lack of it) between the trajectory of the virus at Madrid and Stockholm. Who do you think has let it rip?
1/ There were many "Eureka" moments while working on our paper, but probably the most important of all happened pretty early. Non-linear models are highly sensitive to:
2/ We decided early on to eliminate as many parameters as possible. Location parameters are simple to fix, they are location parameters. Viral parameters also, you can go and say R0=3.3 and you made a choice. How many parameters are left if you do that?
2/ We extended the SEIRS model to support stratified isolation levels for healthy <60 and vulnerable individuals.
3/ We forced the model to predict daily deaths curves and the reported age serology ratio for key metropolitan areas in Europe. The immunity level estimations obtained were: Madrid 43%; Catalonia 24%; Brussels 73%; and Stockholm 65%.
0/n Thank all of you who participated in 'The demon game'. I am taking a screenshot because when knowing the whys it loses all value (there is no more asymmetry of information). These 182 responses are 'The sample'.
1/n You may have already known about this thought experiment you just run on, mainly because there are many different variants of it in the literature. This is the one that I have seen lately:
2/n This example is good because the results are clear-cut to show 2 typical sources of error. Poor experimental setups are the bain of our existence and there are myriad ways they can go wrong.
[1/n] Preparing everything to respond to the question: "Under our isolation epidemic model. Is it possible to correct government policy mismanagement starting at the end of July in 90 days for Madrid, Catalunya and a few other cities?" What do you think? Answers in an hour or so.
[2/n] For those that are new to this thread, you can prepare and hone your skills in modeling with the Harmless Virus Game: