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Stuart Neilson Profile picture
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20 Dec, 7 tweets, 3 min read
Current trend in daily cases is (at least) a 5.9% per day (49% per week) rise, reaching 1,000 cases per day BEFORE the end of December.
NOTE that NPHET suggested re-imposition of lockdown if cases rose above 400 per day, and we are well over that threshold.
7 Dec: "Ireland could return to lockdown for 3 weeks if cases spike to over 400 per day over Christmas. NPHET has warned government that a “major increase” in socialisation could see 450 infection cases daily being diagnosed before the end of December."
irishmirror.ie/news/irish-new…
Today the data also supports a new structural break at 2 December, a reversal from falling rates to rising rates - close to the end of Level 5 lockdown.
Structural break analysis is an objective means of identifying shifts in gradient or magnitude (Dergiades et al, 2020).
NB: Dergiades et al (2020) provided convincing evidence that a STRONG policy introduced EARLY had the greatest impact reducing rates and minimising the duration of restrictions.
researchgate.net/publication/34…
(Anyone wishing to replicate, my structural breaks in the graph above are the output of "brk <- breakpoints(log(cases)~date, h=7)" using the R package strucchange)
"We find that the greater the strength of government interventions at an early stage, the more effective these are in slowing down or reversing the growth rate of deaths... This is important not least because there is a possibility of further waves of COVID-19" - Dergiades et al
Incidence rates of coronavirus across the counties of #Ireland, at the end of Level 5 lockdown and on Friday (latest available data).

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More from @StuartDNeilson

Stuart Neilson Profile picture
22 Dec
NPHET, 15 October:
"Were Re to be reduced to 0.5 for 3 weeks, daily cases would reduce to 250-300/day. HOWEVER, releasing measures at that point would likely re-escalation in disease trajectory, such that 1,000 cases/day would be expected by mid-December."
gov.ie/en/collection/…
NPHET, 15 October:
"Were Re to be reduced to 0.5 for SIX [instead of THREE week lockdown] weeks, case numbers would be reduced to 50-100/day, following which release of all measures (Re returning to 1.4) would result in cases not going over 300/day until early January 2021"
The reproduction number R is tied to neighbours - e.g. UK, Spain, France & Germany are largest travel links - but #Ireland imposed lockdown earlier, in October, reducing R moderatly and reducing transmission substantially. R compounds over time, small changes have large impact. ImageImage
Read 6 tweets
Stuart Neilson Profile picture
21 Dec
During the next few weeks we can expect, at a minimum, 85,000 cases of coronavirus infection in #Ireland, 6,000 requiring hospital treatment for Covid-19, 700 requiring ICU treatment, and 500-1,000 of whom will die. Image
Assuming growth is 5.9%/day, continuing 14 days from a new lockdown imposed on 29 December, cases would peak at around 2,200 cases per day, around 10 January. If restrictions from 29 December had the same impact as Level 5 in October then incidence would fall to 90/day in April.
IHME has a more pessimistic projection with cases peaking at 6,800/day on 10 February, with a total of 1,700 deaths - i.e. almost doubling the existing number of deaths from Covid-19 over the winter.
covid19.healthdata.org/ireland?view=d…
Read 10 tweets
Stuart Neilson Profile picture
20 Dec
Anyone doubting the value of suppressing coronavirus, Belgium has recorded 18,545 deaths in a population of 11.6 million. One person in every 630 has died from Covid-19.

Estonia recorded just 174 deaths in 1.3 million - just 8% of the Belgian rate. Image
Countries that have taken STRONG and EARLY measures include Cambodia, Laos, Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, China and most of Africa (shown on the same scale here) - with mortality rates 0.5% of the rate recorded by Belgium.

Why are we obstinately rejecting effective suppression? Image
WHO Step 1: "Mobilize all sectors and communities to ensure that every sector of government and society takes ownership of and participates in the response and in preventing cases through hand hygiene, respiratory etiquette and individual-level physical distancing."
Read 10 tweets
Stuart Neilson Profile picture
20 Dec
"The total net worth of 651 US billionaires rose from $2.95 trillion on March 18 — the start of the pandemic shutdowns — to $4.01 trillion on Dec. 7, a leap of 36%, according to Americans for Tax Fairness (ATF) & the Institute for Policy Studies (IPS)"
americansfortaxfairness.org/wp-content/upl…
The $1 trillion wealth gain by 651 U.S. billionaires since mid-March is more than it would cost to send a stimulus check of $3,000 to every one of the roughly 330 million people in America.
The $1 trillion wealth gain by 651 U.S. billionaires since mid-March is double the two-year estimated budget gap of all state and local governments, which is forecast to be at least $500 billion.
Read 7 tweets
Stuart Neilson Profile picture
19 Mar
The current growth rates of coronavirus across almost all of Europe continue at 20-40% per day, but mitigation efforts will take 1-2 weeks to show. Europe is now harder hit than China. We are headed to a siuation similar to that in Italy, which itself is still worsening.
The rate of coronavirus in Italy as a whole is currently 588 cases / million, but higher in Lombardy 1,757 / million (almost 0.2%). The peak in Wuhan City reached 6,113 / million (0.6%).
It seems wise to plan for at least the same peak in Europe, or worse, given our slow start.
The rates in Wuhan City equate to 30,000 cases, most mild or without symptoms. About 20% were hospitalised and 5% needed intensive care. This would equate to 6,000 hospital cases, 1,500 ICU cases and 1,300 deaths in the Irish population of 4.92 million, without adjusting for age.
Read 9 tweets

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