Thread by @StuartDNeilson

During the next few weeks we can expect, at a minimum, 85,000 cases of coronavirus infection in #Ireland, 6,000 requiring hospital treatment for Covid-19, 700 requiring ICU treatment, and 500-1,000 of whom will die.

Assuming growth is 5.9%/day, continuing 14 days from a new lockdown imposed on 29 December, cases would peak at around 2,200 cases per day, around 10 January. If restrictions from 29 December had the same impact as Level 5 in October then incidence would fall to 90/day in April.

IHME has a more pessimistic projection with cases peaking at 6,800/day on 10 February, with a total of 1,700 deaths - i.e. almost doubling the existing number of deaths from Covid-19 over the winter.
covid19.healthdata.org/ireland?view=d…

IHME also reports poor compliance (68%) with mask wearing, and rapidly increasing social contact (33% below usual, as opposed to 54% below during Level 5).

Both masking and social distance compliance would reduce mortality and illness considerably.

The second wave, so far, has recorded 52,281 cases of coronavirus, 2,257 hospitalised, 220 in ICU, and 422 deaths from Covid-19.
The second wave, reduced during Level 3-5 lockdown during October and November, is now growing more rapidly than in September, to a higher peak.

Note that a) 5.9%/day probably underestimates current growth; b) the current incidence is probably higher than 650 cases/day; c) full lockdown as early as 29 December is unlikely to be politically palatable.

Localised regression analysis suggests faster growth, and growth of 11%/day in London - this is still slightly lower than the 15%/day growth rate in #Ireland during the first wave.

https://twitter.com/johnmcclean_ie/status/1340772310291279872?s=20

@dazult_pdempsey made rough estimates of 40,000 cases and 400-800 deaths if lockdown is delayed until 30 December.

https://twitter.com/dazult_pdempsey/status/1340210352215175168?s=20

@astaines reports that the reproduction number is rising, which means the current pandemic wave is accelerating, even before Christmas movement and socialising.

https://twitter.com/astaines/status/1340648370893893634?s=20

The coronavirus test positivity rate in Ireland is now 4.6%, doubled in just 7 days, a faster increase than during October.
covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/pages/hospital…