NPHET, 15 October:
"Were Re to be reduced to 0.5 for 3 weeks, daily cases would reduce to 250-300/day. HOWEVER, releasing measures at that point would likely re-escalation in disease trajectory, such that 1,000 cases/day would be expected by mid-December."
gov.ie/en/collection/…
"Were Re to be reduced to 0.5 for 3 weeks, daily cases would reduce to 250-300/day. HOWEVER, releasing measures at that point would likely re-escalation in disease trajectory, such that 1,000 cases/day would be expected by mid-December."
gov.ie/en/collection/…
NPHET, 15 October:
"Were Re to be reduced to 0.5 for SIX [instead of THREE week lockdown] weeks, case numbers would be reduced to 50-100/day, following which release of all measures (Re returning to 1.4) would result in cases not going over 300/day until early January 2021"
"Were Re to be reduced to 0.5 for SIX [instead of THREE week lockdown] weeks, case numbers would be reduced to 50-100/day, following which release of all measures (Re returning to 1.4) would result in cases not going over 300/day until early January 2021"
The reproduction number R is tied to neighbours - e.g. UK, Spain, France & Germany are largest travel links - but #Ireland imposed lockdown earlier, in October, reducing R moderatly and reducing transmission substantially. R compounds over time, small changes have large impact. 
Harvard estimate is R=1.39 in #Ireland, slightly higher than the UK and much higher than elsewhere in Europe, since the end of lockdown and (in effect) all restrictions.
metrics.covid19-analysis.org
metrics.covid19-analysis.org
LSHTM estimate is R = 1.5, equating to a doubling time of just 5 days. That means 700 cases today, 1,400 by 29 December, 2,800 by 5 January, etc.
LSHTM Epiforecasts modelling: epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/gl…
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