The current growth rates of coronavirus across almost all of Europe continue at 20-40% per day, but mitigation efforts will take 1-2 weeks to show. Europe is now harder hit than China. We are headed to a siuation similar to that in Italy, which itself is still worsening. 
The rate of coronavirus in Italy as a whole is currently 588 cases / million, but higher in Lombardy 1,757 / million (almost 0.2%). The peak in Wuhan City reached 6,113 / million (0.6%).
It seems wise to plan for at least the same peak in Europe, or worse, given our slow start.
It seems wise to plan for at least the same peak in Europe, or worse, given our slow start.
The rates in Wuhan City equate to 30,000 cases, most mild or without symptoms. About 20% were hospitalised and 5% needed intensive care. This would equate to 6,000 hospital cases, 1,500 ICU cases and 1,300 deaths in the Irish population of 4.92 million, without adjusting for age.
The rates in Wuhan City are a reasonable planning estimate, not a worst case scenario. Each week of delay in the early stages allows the epidemic to grow tenfold, so it could be much worse than China.
Remember, some cases are asymptomatic (have no symptoms), so act as carefully as if you were carrying coronavirus. Self isolate if you have symptoms. Avoid social contact, use tissues, wash hands.
Small countries get lost in case counts (as the developing pandemic was, in comparison to the then immense Chinese count), but frontline medicine is state-based. The worst affected countries are: San Marino, Faeroe Islands, Vatican City, Liechtenstein, Iceland and Andorra.
Using percentage of cases recovered as a proxy, countries past peak: China 87% recovered, Diamond Princess 74%, Hong Kong 49%, Singapore 37%, Bahrain 37%, Iran 33%, Taiwan 24%, Japan 21%. Only 9% of Chinese cases remain active, whereas 76% of Japanese cases are still active.
From worldometers.info/coronavirus/#c… - Active % means active (i.e. still positive) cases divided by total cases. Recovered % means recovered divided by total.
Graph at the top of this thread from @behrooz_hm
