A lot of good discussion today about what we know and don't know about the new #SARSCoV2 variant in the UK.

But what does this mean (if anything) for government responses & public health law control measures, even if greater transmissibility is confirmed?

Quick notes (1/7)
Firstly, the virus is already sufficiently transmissible to be a concern. As others have noted, already important critical public health measures (avoiding crowds, social distancing, mask wearing, hand washing) will address variants that emerge:
(2/7)
First "but": any potential increase in transmissibility might shift how we weigh the stringency or priority of certain interventions, and how justifications for public health laws determine what is "the least restrictive measure".
(3/7)
A good example of this is new flight restrictions from the UK to Ireland, Netherlands, and now France.

A new variant that may be more transmissible provides a novel justification for restricting people's movement, when there is otherwise sustained transmission occurring.
(4/7)
Secondly, governments that haven't acted before this new variant (esp. in lead up to holidays), should have. On the one hand, if uncertainty about a variant prompts action that should have already been taken, some might argue that that's good: ends justifies the means etc.
(5/7)
Second "but": on the other hand, govts using variants as justification risks sending message that measures weren't already warranted.

This is risky & could have consequences, esp. if it's subsequently determined that there's limited difference.
(6/7)
Finally, we need to be alert but not alarmed at new variants.

"Alert" means:

1) proactive & responsive governments,
2) protecting public trust w transparency, and
3) surveillance w global & national systems for sharing viral sequences & epi data.
(7/7)

nytimes.com/2020/12/20/hea…

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More from @alexandraphelan

21 Dec
Public Health England has just released their updated report on the UK #SARSCoV2 variant

"Investigation of novel SARS-CoV-2 variant: Variant of Concern 202012/01"

I'll do a quick summary thread below & link to report:
A cluster was identified & used to assess increasing incidence of the Variant of Concern (designated as such 18 Dec) in Kent, UK:
- 4% (255/6130) of Kent cases had available genomes
- in Kent: 117 genomically similar cases identified (10-19 Nov)
- in UK: 962 genomes of VoC(8 Dec) Image
Out of that 962 UK wide, epi data was available for 915 individuals.

As of 20 Dec, VoC present mainly in London, South East & East of England regions.

The report goes into the details of how the VoC testing is carried out.
Read 8 tweets
10 Dec
Vaccine news that may not be covered outside of Australia:

The University of Queensland/CSL #covid19 vaccine trial has reportedly been abandoned for really interesting reasons, with one less potential vaccine for global COVAX Facility pool.

Quick thread:
smh.com.au/politics/feder…
The UQ/CSL vaccine (V451) uses a molecular clamp vaccine platform with the COVID-19 spike protein: the clamp "locks" the spike protein to be more stable for purification & manufacture. It contains a small component derived from HIV that cannot infect people & poses no health risk
However, this component resulted in some participants (out of 200 volunteers inc. placebo & vaccine) in Phase 1 trial producing "a partial antibody response" which interfered with HIV screening tests (which detect HIV antibodies, not virus) resulting in false positive HIV tests.
Read 5 tweets
9 Dec
With the vaccine Executive Order now up, President Trump has ordered that "Americans" have priority to "US Govt COVDI19 Vaccines".

I want to push back on some arguments dismissing the risk of this as there are very concerning impacts.

whitehouse.gov/presidential-a…
United States Government COVID-19 Vaccines are defined in the EO as "COVID-19 vaccines developed in the United States or procured by the United States Government"

This does not limit the scope of the EO to those purchased under APAs, but includes vaccines developed here.
That said, implementation of EO will likely start w vaccines purchased by US Govt under APAs. This alone is concerning:

US govt has bought signif. number of global mRNA vaccines:
– Moderna: 100m doses/266m in APAs + 400m option
– Pfizer: 100m doses/590m in APAs + 500m option
Read 6 tweets
1 Dec
This is a huge drop of China #COVID19 documents from @npwcnn. Unfortunately, this leak confirms points I & other China, health, law folks have said since Jan.

I'm going to summarize some of the key findings in 🧵below

Here's full report:
edition.cnn.com/2020/11/30/asi…
Finding 1: Hubei (Wuhan's province) had 20 times increase in "influenza cases" in Dec. High number of "unknown cause" is flag: flu relatively easy to confirm if tested. Also not clear how many confirmed influenza, & if so, if/what samples or GSD was shared w @WHO GISRS.
🧵2/10
Finding 2: signif underreporting of daily new cases & deaths in Feb & Mar. If you recall, this was a live issue at that time w reclassification of case definitions by Chinese health officials, but report indicates deliberate politicization of data to present optimism.
🧵3/10
Read 10 tweets
29 Nov
Lovely piece from @guardian on our recent publication in Proc @royalsociety B "What would it take to describe the global diversity of parasites?"

It may not be apparent but this is also a story of rectifying colonial "exploration narratives".

🧵1/6

theguardian.com/environment/20…
To follow the article, here's a great explainer thread about our piece by @wormmaps about the science of estimating how many uncounted parasites there may be (including the Brothers Grimm & uncountable things):

🧵2/6

https ://twitter.com/wormmaps/status/1329070889372176384?s=20
In the @guardian piece, I love this quote about entire unknown worlds:

🧵3/6
Read 7 tweets
15 Nov
Failures in US leadership mean Americans face tough decisions with Festive Season. In Jan, China faced similar choices but w more uncertainty).

A short thread comparing & drawing lessons between:
– January China 🧧Lunar New Year🧧
– November United States 🦃Thanksgiving🦃

1/13
Starting with some case count comparisons between Lunar New Year in China & now in the US:

– 254.3 cases per day: China (Jan 25)
– 135,714.3 cases per day: US (Nov 12)

2/13
Much focus on China's success has been on lockdowns: a time when we didn't know much, didn't have widely available testing & govt support to ensure socio-economic protections. Now, lockdowns can be avoided with strong public health & health systems.

But...

3/13
Read 13 tweets

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