Thread by @pmdfoster

Is a landing zone on fish slowly starting to emerge in #Brexit talks? EU states accept a 35% per cent in UK waters with 5-year transition? Latest with @jimbrunsden @GeorgeWParker which chimes with this thread from well-connected @RaoulRuparel 1/thread

ft.com/content/90e8e0…

https://twitter.com/RaoulRuparel/status/1341081859523010569

@jimbrunsden @GeorgeWParker @RaoulRuparel Before anyone gets too excited, both sides say (I know) they are "far apart" on key issues...but it's also true that both sides have moved off their lines.

Recall we're talking about how much of the €650m of fish currently caught by EU boats in UK waters they should give up/2

@jimbrunsden @GeorgeWParker @RaoulRuparel The EU side started on 15% then 18% and lately 25%...which French are still unhappy about, we are told...but that equates to €158.68m....that's MILLION...bear in mind this FTA would set rules for bilateral EU-UK trade worth more than €650 BILLION. So this sprats n minnows /3

@jimbrunsden @GeorgeWParker @RaoulRuparel Put another way, the EU offer of 25% cuts, equates to, I am told,
- France losing 7% of their quota,
- Denmark 6% and
- Netherlands 8%.

Could they really not get to 35%? As @RaoulRuparel that seems fair compromise /4

@jimbrunsden @GeorgeWParker @RaoulRuparel No one doubts the difficulty of the politics of this, but it is December 21 and close to unconscionable that both sides have are still unable to sort this out - because there are real livelihoods at stake.

This isn't time for blamegame, both sides need to sign a deal /5

@jimbrunsden @GeorgeWParker @RaoulRuparel Of course, the whole thing was never really about 'fish' - it's about level playing-field & competition, and now it seems both sides are not as settled on this as perhaps was portrayed last week. But again, it cannot be beyond wit of both sides to create a system to manage this/6

@jimbrunsden @GeorgeWParker @RaoulRuparel At this point we seem to be stuck in something a political impasse, where Paris is apparently genuinely ambivalent about a deal and @BorisJohnson is reluctant to sign off on the not very good deal he has reversed himself into /7

@jimbrunsden @GeorgeWParker @RaoulRuparel @BorisJohnson The danger is that both sides convince themselves that a 'no deal' is preferable to the compromises - the French think they can screw a better deal out of 'no deal' Britain; the Brits think 'no deal' is just a few months of painful adjustment for business /8

@jimbrunsden @GeorgeWParker @RaoulRuparel @BorisJohnson That would, as @RaoulRuparel says, be an "epic failure" on behalf of both sides.

Today we had a small foretaste of what no deal might look like - and away from the high politics it means pain for ordinary people.

Like the haulier I spoke to today losing £5k a day! /9

@jimbrunsden @GeorgeWParker @RaoulRuparel @BorisJohnson Paul Jackson, boss of @ChilternDist, has 30% of his biz based on EU traffic. A lorry generates revenue of £700-£800 a day when moving...today he had six loads cancelled...and more cancelled tomorrow. That's revenue that wont come back. Revenue for companies, staff, drivers../10

@jimbrunsden @GeorgeWParker @RaoulRuparel @BorisJohnson @ChilternDist There are thousands of these stories...and it's too easy to say that "business will adjust" - it may well, but at what cost?

This entire #Brexit process has paid far too little attention to people who make things, move things and provide valuable services across borders/11

@jimbrunsden @GeorgeWParker @RaoulRuparel @BorisJohnson @ChilternDist It really is time to do a deal. The EU-UK relationship is going to evolve - probably messily - over time anyway.

A bare-minimum foundation is self-evidently in everyone's interest, but the lack of political heft means the bigger picture is getting lost.

Time to focus. ENDS