Thread by @pmdfoster

BREAK: The UK drops all its 'law breaking' clauses - including plans for more in forthcoming taxation bill - after @michaelgove
and @MarosSefcovic agree deal on terms of implementing Northern Irish Protocol. 1/

gov.uk/government/pub…

@michaelgove @MarosSefcovic This is obviously very good news - recalling that it relates to the implementation of last autumn's deal to allow #Brexit to happen without returning a trade border to island of Ireland...but leaving one in the Irish Sea. /2

@michaelgove @MarosSefcovic The statement says that the two sides have determined "criteria for goods to be considered 'not at risk' of entering the EU" - though the extent to which goods pay tariffs UK-EU will depend on whether we get an FTA with the EU. (Even if we do, some still will) /3

@michaelgove @MarosSefcovic The two sides have also agreed on the 'reachback' of Article 10 or the "application of State aid under the terms of the Protocol" which the UK govt feared could be used to constrain UK govt subsidy decisions after January 1 /4

@michaelgove @MarosSefcovic This was because EU state aid law applied to UK in respect of NI Goods - so risk of 'catching' a UK decision to, say, give a bank a tax break if it had NI Clients...thereby blowing hole in @BorisJohnson 'sovereign' Brexit. An understanding has been reached here. /5

@michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @BorisJohnson Other bits also seem to have been sorted - for example the 'chilled meats' question (EU rules say all exports to third countries of prepared meats must be frozen)...we'll see if that can be applied GB-EU if/when we get FTA /6

@michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @BorisJohnson It looks (we await details) as if there is a fix on export summary declarations for goods going NI-GB, which was subject of the other 'notwithstanding' clauses that UK is now dropping. /7

@michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @BorisJohnson Industry will now wait for full details of how the Irish Sea border is going to operate...and what it means for those not lucky enough to have authorised operator exemptions or fall under a supermarket scheme - wholesalers, parcel operators and small traders etc /8

@michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @BorisJohnson So then, the big question: Does this bring us closer to an FTA? Or even pave the way for a 'no deal' - given that this now puts something of a political floor under that eventuality, assuming the pacts holds for NIP in event of an acrimonious 'no deal'. Can argue it both ways. /9

@michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @BorisJohnson But that is for the future - for now the implementation of the Protocol has (finally) been put on an agreed footing and a pretty damaging episode (in my view) for UK international credibility has a line drawn under it.

The devil now will be in the detail. /10

@michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @BorisJohnson Because as yesterday's thread explained, for a lot of businesses this clarity (and we hope information, tho we wait no tariffs) is coming just too late - in part, I suspect, because this whole deal was delayed by the lawbreaking gambit./11

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1335934153980866563?s=20

@michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @BorisJohnson In any event, it is going to be a very testing January as the UK ingests the reality of a pretty full fat Irish Sea trade border that some will decry, particularly if we're in a no deal world and the trucks are backing up at Dover etc. /12

@michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @BorisJohnson The arguments advanced over the summer by hardcore Brexiters of @CentreBrexit asking for the end of the Withdrawal Agreement risk coming back, if all (four) sides don't make this work. ENDS

centreforbrexitpolicy.org.uk/wp-content/upl…