Thread by @pmdfoster

So today (amid all hullabaloo on Johnson visit to Brussels) the new Irish Sea trade border after Jan 1 will start to take form - expect some short term exemptions (perhaps 3 mths on Health Certs, I hear) to save blushes, but deeper long term structural change. #brexit 1/

Avoiding short term disruption will not obscure for some groups and traders the reality that NI consumers and businesses are going to operate in a new/parallel reality in order to avoid that trade border in Ireland returning. /2

Big supermarkets and AEOs will get some Retail Movement Scheme easement to allow certification in distribution centres for example; month long validity meat certification - but likely only for companies with track record and fixed points of sale. /3

But that likely won’t cover lots of others - wholesalers, anyone sending inputs (sugar, say, to make fizzy drinks) which can’t be guaranteed to stay in the North.

Detail will be key in determining long term cost differentials for NI consumers/industry/retailers. /4

Also the experience for parcel operators and e-commerce businesses depending on safety and security declarations and other requirements that will impact fast parcel business ans retail experience.

Huge amount to play for beyond short term disruption avoidance ENDS.