So today (amid all hullabaloo on Johnson visit to Brussels) the new Irish Sea trade border after Jan 1 will start to take form - expect some short term exemptions (perhaps 3 mths on Health Certs, I hear) to save blushes, but deeper long term structural change. #brexit 1/
Avoiding short term disruption will not obscure for some groups and traders the reality that NI consumers and businesses are going to operate in a new/parallel reality in order to avoid that trade border in Ireland returning. /2
Big supermarkets and AEOs will get some Retail Movement Scheme easement to allow certification in distribution centres for example; month long validity meat certification - but likely only for companies with track record and fixed points of sale. /3
But that likely won’t cover lots of others - wholesalers, anyone sending inputs (sugar, say, to make fizzy drinks) which can’t be guaranteed to stay in the North.

Detail will be key in determining long term cost differentials for NI consumers/industry/retailers. /4
Also the experience for parcel operators and e-commerce businesses depending on safety and security declarations and other requirements that will impact fast parcel business ans retail experience.

Huge amount to play for beyond short term disruption avoidance ENDS.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Peter Foster

Peter Foster Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @pmdfoster

10 Dec
It's OUT! My latest @ft #Brexit Briefing...so, was last night's disastrous dinner a "Merkel moment" like in 2019...or just the next zombie-like step in the no-deal death-dance in which both sides now seem to be engaged? Mmm.... 1/Thread

ft.com/content/bc7f0b…
@FT So first, the "Merkel moment" - I'm referring to that "brutally frank" phone call in October 2019 in which the German Chancellor told @BorisJohnson that the EU really wouldn't accept a tech trade border in Ireland - as David Frost has been insisting they would /2
@FT @BorisJohnson No. 10 reaction furiously, said it was all over etc. BUT when the penny dropped, it also triggered movement - the meeting in the Wirral with @LeoVaradkar and nine days later a deal!

Could something similar happen this time after another brutally frank exchange? /3
Read 18 tweets
9 Dec
So @michaelgove was just on @BBCr4today talking about NI protocol & #Brexit. He started with some basic points...

Re EU inspections: “What we have is EU officials visiting NI with an opportunity to watch UK officials making sure these checks are there.” 1/
@michaelgove @BBCr4today And then confirmed that there would be no Exit Summary Declarations NI-GB:

"No checks on goods going from Northern Ireland into Great Britain."

All good so far...but then the actualite started to get a bit stretched...as he continued by saying.../2
@michaelgove @BBCr4today “For businesses in Northern Ireland life will *continue as it has beforehand*, fully part of the United Kingdom, able to take advantage of our trade deals, as we leave the EU as one united country, and also *without border infrastructure*.” @MichaelAodhan
@Big_Kells
@Freight_NI/3
Read 4 tweets
8 Dec
BREAK: The UK drops all its 'law breaking' clauses - including plans for more in forthcoming taxation bill - after @michaelgove
and @MarosSefcovic agree deal on terms of implementing Northern Irish Protocol. 1/

gov.uk/government/pub…
@michaelgove @MarosSefcovic This is obviously very good news - recalling that it relates to the implementation of last autumn's deal to allow #Brexit to happen without returning a trade border to island of Ireland...but leaving one in the Irish Sea. /2
@michaelgove @MarosSefcovic The statement says that the two sides have determined "criteria for goods to be considered 'not at risk' of entering the EU" - though the extent to which goods pay tariffs UK-EU will depend on whether we get an FTA with the EU. (Even if we do, some still will) /3
Read 13 tweets
7 Dec
🚨🇬🇧🇪🇺🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🇮🇪🚚🚚🇬🇧🇪🇺🚨

As #brexit talks drift towards the rocks, trade groups say plans for Irish Sea trade border after Brexit are ‘in a mess’ via, my latest via @FT ...this is an issue coming deal or no deal. Stay with me 1/
on.ft.com/2JTaaDo
@FT So to recap, under Northern Ireland protocol negotiated in the Withdrawal Agreement all goods going from Great Britain to NI must confirm with EU customs code. To avoid new border in Ireland, that means trade border in Irish Sea - new paperwork, new systems. Operational Jan 1/2
@FT The problem is that because the FTA negotiations are stuck, the negotiations in the Joint Committee on how to implement the Protoocl (and @michaelgove is with @MarosSefcovic talking today) haven't yet born fruit. That means a LOT of uncertainty. /3
Read 19 tweets
6 Dec
🚨🇬🇧🇪🇺🚗🦮🐕🐩🐾🇪🇺🇬🇧🚨🚨So a #brexit nugget in pet passports situation after Jan 1 - @MPGeorgeEustice tells #marr U.K. will probably be “Part 2” listed country - @guidedogs are furious. News will disappoint many. 1/thread
@MPGeorgeEustice @guidedogs Here's the exchange on #Marr. Basically on pet passports UK could be Part 1 (little change), Part 2 (more change) and Unlisted (huge change) and it looks like we'll be in middle. /2
@MPGeorgeEustice @guidedogs Looks like that's less than what UK asked for - per this BBC Reality Check piece from January that says we wanted Part 1 status.

So what does it mean in practice? /3

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-419696…
Read 6 tweets
30 Nov
🚨🚨🇪🇺🇬🇧🚗🚗🚗🚗🇬🇧🇪🇺🚨🚨Brussels delay on insurance ‘green cards’ puts UK motorists in a jam via @FT - me and ⁦@jimbrunsden⁩ on a bit of Brussels hardball. Welcome to fight club - and I suspect the new normal (ask the Swiss). 1/ on.ft.com/3mmOgGL
@FT @jimbrunsden So this is a slightly complicated story, but what it comes down is that the Commission has withheld a decision that would spare UK motorists from having to print out a physical copy of their "Green Card" before driving to EU (+EEA and Serbia, Andorra and Switzerland) /2
@FT @jimbrunsden So as things stand you will need one - see .gov advice here. It proves you have third party insurance, but an electronic copy won't do. And if you have a caravan you'll need one. And if your policy expires mid-break, you'll need one for new policy too/3

gov.uk/visit-europe-1…
Read 14 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!