Raoul Pal Profile picture
22 Dec, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Thought: Let's say a start up, like $FB back in the day, raised funding on a dodgy idea, let's say they got traction and the idea didnt look so dodgy so they raised more cash via equity but lets say they agree to an limit on the equity issuance. Is that wrong? XRP (no view).
So, right or wrong?

It is not so clear to me, with my limited knowledge at a macro level....
I also understand Ripple issued equity but Im not sure how totally different this is if you replace the worlds "cryptocurrency" with shares.

All thoughts appreciated. As I said, I have zero view but am not sure of the controversy at a macro level. XRP is being used at least...
I think there are much dodger versions of this, who had no real intention of actually creating an ecosystem but its too soon for me to claim fraud.

Not everything however needs to look like BTC to have value (RP ducks as the hate pours in).

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More from @RaoulGMI

22 Dec
Final crypto comment for a bit:

Tokens are just real-time trading VC bets. If you owned early seed investments with real-time mark to market you'd see the exact same. 80% go to zero, 19% add value and 1% make all the money. Real time marks freak people out.
If you real time marked any VC investment you see it go to near zero numerous times (for Real Vision, probably 6 times). The value comes from adoption and eventually revenues as business models adapt.Most dont survive, its normal and is capitalism.
Thinking everything is a scam because its not BTC is simply ludicrous. It is like taking a snapshot of early VC bets and writing everything off as a zero because its not Google.

Apples and oranges.

The actual money is in the numbers game - Pareto's Law.
Read 6 tweets
19 Dec
At the beginning of December I wrote about the economic impacts of potential covid restrictions over Christmas/New Year in Europe...
The UK is suffering the full brunt of this...

ft.com/content/3484bb…
But Europe as a whole is going to move in this direction and New Years Eve parties are going to be off the agenda, along with seasonal vacations.
Read 16 tweets
11 Dec
A few things to make you think...

If bitcoin is the digital pristine collateral, the size of global gov bond market is $123trn.

Pretty amazing opportunity for bitcoin.
The size of the global custody system is $23 trn

That will accrue to bitcoin and more likely maybe ETH.
The settlements layer is over $4 QUADRILLIAN per annum

Probably BTC and ETH and other blockchains, including private ones.
Read 14 tweets
9 Dec
So, if the hypothesis that key driver of asset prices is the devaluation of fiat currency it pays to look at assets against G4 Central bank balance sheets as the denominator, to determine what is a store of value.

Here is the G4 balance sheet - 2009 was when it all started.
Commodities have failed to maintain their purchasing power..
Bonds have failed to maintain their purchasing power...even after rallying for the last decade.
Read 7 tweets
4 Dec
Bitcoin is potentially facing some serious technical headways... the daily DeMark is showing a cluster on 2 13's and a 9 and tomorrow might put in ANOTHER 13!
The weekly is stacking up top counts too...and a larger correction looks very possible
and concerningly, the monthly has put in a 9 top.
Read 4 tweets
4 Dec
MSCI Emerging Markets is the best looking chart in the world right now, outside of bitcoin. If this break is confirmed, then we can expect a decade or more of strong EM performance.
However, its very overbought (the dollar is very oversold) and the weekly DeMark suggests we might fall back for a bit to garner energy for the break. $EEM is the easy way to play it.
$EEM hasn't yet really turned against the SPX..
Read 6 tweets

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