Here's my weekly update from SCB on mortality in Sweden.
Year 2020 has:
(1) the highest excess mortality since 1937 (pop. adjusted)
(2) the most excess deaths since 1919 (not pop. adjusted)
(3) annulled 7 years of all-cause mortality decline (highest ACM since 2013)
1/n
Year 2020 has:
(1) the highest excess mortality since 1937 (pop. adjusted)
(2) the most excess deaths since 1919 (not pop. adjusted)
(3) annulled 7 years of all-cause mortality decline (highest ACM since 2013)
1/n
For their part, the Swedish government estimates 4859 as of 30 Nov:
2/n
https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1340335248295411714
2/n
The line representing average expected mortality on my chart is a LOWESS regression
Normally demographers use more sophisticated statistical algorithms (eg. Farrington) to do so. LOWESS is a sloppy technique, but it works well enough for rough estimates
3/n
Normally demographers use more sophisticated statistical algorithms (eg. Farrington) to do so. LOWESS is a sloppy technique, but it works well enough for rough estimates
3/n
For more accurate results, I didn't include 2020 data in the LOWESS regression. Instead I cut off the smoothing at 2019, and assume that without COVID-19 the expected mortality would have continued its generally improving trend of the last decades through 2020
4/n
4/n
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