Jon Worth Profile picture
21 Dec, 5 tweets, 1 min read
๐ŸŽ‰๐ŸŽ๐ŸŽ‰๐ŸŽ๐ŸŽ‰๐ŸŽ๐ŸŽ‰๐ŸŽ
WELCOME TO CHOOSE YOUR CHRISTMAS BREXIT!
๐ŸŽ„๐Ÿฅณ๐ŸŽ„๐Ÿฅณ๐ŸŽ„๐Ÿฅณ๐ŸŽ„๐Ÿฅณ

Which unpalatable option is under your Christmas Tree?
๐ŸŽ‰๐ŸŽ๐ŸŽ‰๐ŸŽ๐ŸŽ‰๐ŸŽ๐ŸŽ‰๐ŸŽ
OPTION 1: PROVISIONAL APPLICATION
๐ŸŽ„๐Ÿฅณ๐ŸŽ„๐Ÿฅณ๐ŸŽ„๐Ÿฅณ๐ŸŽ„๐Ÿฅณ

You like a dashing last minute number? Forget about (European) parliamentary sovereignty and get it over the line by 31 December. And kiss Wallonia under the mistletoe!
๐ŸŽ‰๐ŸŽ๐ŸŽ‰๐ŸŽ๐ŸŽ‰๐ŸŽ๐ŸŽ‰๐ŸŽ
OPTION 2: MINI TREATY
๐ŸŽ„๐Ÿฅณ๐ŸŽ„๐Ÿฅณ๐ŸŽ„๐Ÿฅณ๐ŸŽ„๐Ÿฅณ

Buy yourself some time with this unreliable number. It needs unanimous agreement from the EU-27, *and* the agreement of the Commons and Lords. Everyone will groan about it, but the pain will pass. Until the next deadline.
๐ŸŽ‰๐ŸŽ๐ŸŽ‰๐ŸŽ๐ŸŽ‰๐ŸŽ๐ŸŽ‰๐ŸŽ
OPTION 3: NO DEAL
๐ŸŽ„๐Ÿฅณ๐ŸŽ„๐Ÿฅณ๐ŸŽ„๐Ÿฅณ๐ŸŽ„๐Ÿฅณ

Build up for the big surprise! Or maybe not, as Macron has given you a pre-taster anyway. Try to beat back the smell of pee from the queuing trucks, and hope supply chains and UK GDP rebound fast.
... and that's about it.

There are *no* good options from here.

Sorry!

โ€ข โ€ข โ€ข

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
ใ€€

Keep Current with Jon Worth

Jon Worth Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @jonworth

22 Dec
End of Sunday 20 December
End of Wednesday 23 December
End of Thursday 31 December

The 3 deadlines in the #Brexit end game

They all matter, and what happens when, is going to shape the outcome

A ๐Ÿงต to explain it all...

1/15
Midnight CET night of Thursday 31 December into 1 January is the hard deadline - that is when the Brexit transition period ends

The central question: when that Deadline passes, does ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง have a trade deal with ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ or not?

2/15
Some politicians and commentators have stated that negotiations can continue right up until the last second.

That might happen, but is not going to stop No Deal - because some things *other than* rounds of talks have to happen for No Deal to be avoided

3/15
Read 17 tweets
22 Dec
The most likely โ€œpath to a Dealโ€, 22 Dec, 0830:
- Barnier+Frost agree a Deal by end of 23 Dec
- EP stomachs Provisional Application
- ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Parliaments give their ok to Govts to agree Deal
- Commons+Lords have 30 Dec to vote on a Bill to implement
- No Deal period avoided
NOTE: this isnโ€™t a prediction. Itโ€™s instead answering this question: if there is to be a Deal, whatโ€™s the easiest way to get there? Iโ€™ll do this each morning from now on, until we know the answer.
Also note: we *think* it's the EU Committee of ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Parliament, Grand Committee of ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Parliament, and maybe even the plenary in ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ that'd be needed - I've been trying to work this out, but have made little headway so far...
Read 4 tweets
18 Dec
I'm trying to reverse engineer ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Government's Brexit negotiation tactics

Let's assume for a moment:
1๏ธโƒฃ UK Govt wants a Deal in principle
2๏ธโƒฃ There's no real point where they could *not* concede on the substance
3๏ธโƒฃ They fear ERG backlash, so want absolute minimum scrutiny
That means they want a Deal agreed *as late as possible*

But what day is that in practical terms?
There is no time period stipulated in House of Commons Standing Order No. 13 that governs recall - so that is not the show stopper publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201919/cmโ€ฆ
Read 9 tweets
18 Dec
What if... an extra month to get a Brexit Deal would be the best route?

Please don't scream "not again!" at me for proposing this, but it might prove to be the best bet - as I explain in a new blog post

Summary in ๐Ÿงต

1/7

jonworth.eu/deal-or-no-deaโ€ฆ
It starts with the deadline for talks that the EP is seeking to impose for the end of Sunday

If that is respected, and a Deal is on the table, ratification can proceed. Timetable is ridiculously tight, but it can just about work...

But what if that deadline is missed?

2/7
The most talked-about route would then be Provisional Application - i.e. get the EP to vote after a Deal has entered into force. But there are numerous problems with that - not least that it prevents the European Parliament doing proper scrutiny.

3/7
Read 7 tweets
17 Dec
Confused by the current state of Brexit talks?

Don't fear!

I'm here to, errr, help in the only way I can - with a new #BrexitDiagram

End Game V3.0.0
This one reflects current developments in talks in Brussels indicating progress towards a Deal - but the big question is whether that is before after Sunday 20 Dec... and if it's not it gets very messy
Outcomes
Deal all sorted by 31 Dec - 4๏ธโƒฃ0๏ธโƒฃ%
No Deal 1 Jan - 3๏ธโƒฃ9๏ธโƒฃ%
Uncertainty until January - 1๏ธโƒฃ0๏ธโƒฃ%
Deal, ratification Q1 - 9๏ธโƒฃ%
Deal, ratification later - 2๏ธโƒฃ%
Read 4 tweets
17 Dec
Thinking further about this...

What the European Parliament has said takes us only as far as Sunday

There are 2 options:
1๏ธโƒฃ A Deal by then can be ratified 28 Dec by EP
2๏ธโƒฃ There's nothing by then
What happens with 1๏ธโƒฃ is pretty obvious

With 2๏ธโƒฃ it's less obvious

The Council could go to the EP "tough" - we'll keep talking to the last minute, and EP has to stomach Provisional Application
There are two problems here.

First, the Council will be playing the UK's brinkmanship game - and the 27 Member States might be wondering what nasties are buried in the Treaty they didn't spot because time was short
Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!