You like a dashing last minute number? Forget about (European) parliamentary sovereignty and get it over the line by 31 December. And kiss Wallonia under the mistletoe!
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OPTION 2: MINI TREATY
๐๐ฅณ๐๐ฅณ๐๐ฅณ๐๐ฅณ
Buy yourself some time with this unreliable number. It needs unanimous agreement from the EU-27, *and* the agreement of the Commons and Lords. Everyone will groan about it, but the pain will pass. Until the next deadline.
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OPTION 3: NO DEAL
๐๐ฅณ๐๐ฅณ๐๐ฅณ๐๐ฅณ
Build up for the big surprise! Or maybe not, as Macron has given you a pre-taster anyway. Try to beat back the smell of pee from the queuing trucks, and hope supply chains and UK GDP rebound fast.
... and that's about it.
There are *no* good options from here.
Sorry!
โข โข โข
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The most likely โpath to a Dealโ, 22 Dec, 0830:
- Barnier+Frost agree a Deal by end of 23 Dec
- EP stomachs Provisional Application
- ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ฉ๐ฐ๐ณ๐ฑ Parliaments give their ok to Govts to agree Deal
- Commons+Lords have 30 Dec to vote on a Bill to implement
- No Deal period avoided
NOTE: this isnโt a prediction. Itโs instead answering this question: if there is to be a Deal, whatโs the easiest way to get there? Iโll do this each morning from now on, until we know the answer.
Also note: we *think* it's the EU Committee of ๐ฉ๐ฐ Parliament, Grand Committee of ๐ซ๐ฎ Parliament, and maybe even the plenary in ๐ณ๐ฑ that'd be needed - I've been trying to work this out, but have made little headway so far...
I'm trying to reverse engineer ๐ฌ๐ง Government's Brexit negotiation tactics
Let's assume for a moment:
1๏ธโฃ UK Govt wants a Deal in principle
2๏ธโฃ There's no real point where they could *not* concede on the substance
3๏ธโฃ They fear ERG backlash, so want absolute minimum scrutiny
That means they want a Deal agreed *as late as possible*
It starts with the deadline for talks that the EP is seeking to impose for the end of Sunday
If that is respected, and a Deal is on the table, ratification can proceed. Timetable is ridiculously tight, but it can just about work...
But what if that deadline is missed?
2/7
The most talked-about route would then be Provisional Application - i.e. get the EP to vote after a Deal has entered into force. But there are numerous problems with that - not least that it prevents the European Parliament doing proper scrutiny.
3/7
I'm here to, errr, help in the only way I can - with a new #BrexitDiagram
End Game V3.0.0
This one reflects current developments in talks in Brussels indicating progress towards a Deal - but the big question is whether that is before after Sunday 20 Dec... and if it's not it gets very messy
Outcomes
Deal all sorted by 31 Dec - 4๏ธโฃ0๏ธโฃ%
No Deal 1 Jan - 3๏ธโฃ9๏ธโฃ%
Uncertainty until January - 1๏ธโฃ0๏ธโฃ%
Deal, ratification Q1 - 9๏ธโฃ%
Deal, ratification later - 2๏ธโฃ%
The Council could go to the EP "tough" - we'll keep talking to the last minute, and EP has to stomach Provisional Application
There are two problems here.
First, the Council will be playing the UK's brinkmanship game - and the 27 Member States might be wondering what nasties are buried in the Treaty they didn't spot because time was short