What may #Manafort be hiding in exchange for pardon?

Recall this nugget in Sen. @RonWyden's note accompanying Senate Intelligence Committee report:

Wyden: The unredacted version of the report includes “indications of Manafort’s own connections to [the hack and leak] operations”
2. @howardfineman reported (in 2018) that Trump “decided that a key witness in the Russia probe, Paul Manafort, isn’t going to ‘flip’ and sell him out, friends and aides say” — another indication Manafort has derogatory info about Trump and Trump knows it.
nbcnews.com/storyline/2018…
3. As Trump Campaign Chairman, Manafort shared internal polling data and campaign's strategy with a Russian intelligence officer (Konstantin Kilimnik).

The Senate also obtained evidence Kilimnik was involved in hack and leak operation.

Source: Bipartisan Senate Intel report.
4/4. As @AshaRangappa_ and I wrote:

"In sum, Manafort may hold the keys to the kingdom, not only in terms of shedding light on Russia’s activities in 2016, but also how much coordination or assistance they received from members of the Trump campaign."

justsecurity.org/72148/manafort…

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More from @rgoodlaw

18 Dec
Good piece by @jacklgoldsmith on #SolarWindsHack

I agree with his main points.

But I disagree with some of his analysis, which conflates espionage with far more malicious cyber operations. Vital distinctions in thinking about reciprocity and deterrence in cyberspace.

<thread>
2. My agreement with Jack:

a) It's wrong to suggest this hack is like an act of war.

b) It's wrong to suggest USG could lawfully use military force in response.

c) Public officials/commentators should react with awareness that USG hacks foreign govts' networks on a huge scale.
3. On reciprocity: Jack argues that USG's aggressive disruption of Russia’s Internet Research Agency (IRA) in 2018 opens door to other countries' engaging in similar disruptive actions against US for espionage.👇

But that erroneously conflates IRA’s actions with espionage.
Read 8 tweets
17 Dec
“The magnitude of this ongoing attack is hard to overstate.”

“The logical conclusion is that we must act as if the Russian government has control of all the networks it has penetrated.”

By @TomBossert

nytimes.com/2020/12/16/opi…
“The actual and perceived control...could easily be used to undermine public and consumer trust in data, written communications and services. In the networks that the Russians control, they have the power to destroy or alter data, and impersonate legitimate people.”
“According to SolarWinds SEC filings, the malware was on the software from March to June. The number of orgs. that downloaded the corrupted update could be as many as 18,000, which includes most federal government unclassified networks and more than 425 Fortune 500 companies.”
Read 4 tweets
4 Dec
With news: 8 former US troops/Blackwater guards convicted of war crimes petition for #pardons...

Read this timely analysis.👇

Brian Finucane writes on LONG-held U.S. legal position that a Commander's failure to punish war crimes can itself be a #WarCrime
justsecurity.org/72915/a-comman…
2. News via @Militarydotcom: "At least eight former service members and Blackwater security guards convicted of war crimes have filed petitions seeking pardons...including a former Army staff sergeant [Robert Bales] who pleaded guilty to killing 16 Afghan men, women and children"
3. Link to the news report (h/t @HopeSeck)

military.com/daily-news/202…
Read 4 tweets
26 Nov
I'm thankful to work with professionals at @just_security who have such excellence in judgment, analysis, and intellect and who also happen to be wonderful people:

Co-Editor-in-Chief @bridgewriter
Editorial Director @K8brannen
Washington editor @violagienger

Plus ...
Plus countless reasons to be thankful for our extraordinary Just Security team.

Senior Fellow and Executive Editors:

@steve_vladeck
@jgeltzer
@JameelJaffer
@NiAolainF
@BethVanSchaack
@AndyMcCanse

Editors:

Tendayi Achiume
@DavidColeACLU
@jendaskal
Brian Egan

...
Read 4 tweets
23 Nov
#Michigan update

Republican member of Board of State Canvassers–Aaron Van Langevelde–opening remarks indicate he knows his legal obligation is to certify.👇

Caution: He might well change after public remarks, or shift to delay. But a positive sign for #democracy and rule of law
2. #Michigan - another positive development:

Republican member of the Board, Aaron Van Langevelde, appears to have equipped himself well.

Excellent Q&A with Chris Thomas, former MI election director, walking through in agreement that Board has no authority here but to certify.
3. Other Republican member of Board, Norman Shinkle, looks outgunned by legal analysis by Chris Thomas.

Shinkle probed if there are ways to read law to allow delay, but Thomas is impressive in explaining why MI law does not allow it.

Board just needs 3 of 4 votes to certify.
Read 9 tweets
23 Nov
Two issues with @GSAEmily deserve attention NOW.

Issue-1: With @Transition46 announcing senior official posts, a key part of Presidential Transition Act comes to head.

Need for expedited background investigations/clearances. THAT is what 9/11 Commission warned about.

<thread>
2. @kateashaw1 and I wrote about 9/11 Commission warnings and Presidential Transition Act provisions here👇

It's grossly unacceptable to delay with very significant risk to national security.

Senators should be asked about this, not just intel briefings

justsecurity.org/73317/the-gsas…
3. Presidential Transition Act:

"The President-elect should submit...the names of candidates for high level national security positions...AS SOON AS POSSIBLE after the date of the general elections"

Biden has done and is doing that.
Read 8 tweets

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