What may #Manafort be hiding in exchange for pardon?
Recall this nugget in Sen. @RonWyden's note accompanying Senate Intelligence Committee report:
Wyden: The unredacted version of the report includes “indications of Manafort’s own connections to [the hack and leak] operations”
2. @howardfineman reported (in 2018) that Trump “decided that a key witness in the Russia probe, Paul Manafort, isn’t going to ‘flip’ and sell him out, friends and aides say” — another indication Manafort has derogatory info about Trump and Trump knows it. nbcnews.com/storyline/2018…
3. As Trump Campaign Chairman, Manafort shared internal polling data and campaign's strategy with a Russian intelligence officer (Konstantin Kilimnik).
The Senate also obtained evidence Kilimnik was involved in hack and leak operation.
"In sum, Manafort may hold the keys to the kingdom, not only in terms of shedding light on Russia’s activities in 2016, but also how much coordination or assistance they received from members of the Trump campaign."
But I disagree with some of his analysis, which conflates espionage with far more malicious cyber operations. Vital distinctions in thinking about reciprocity and deterrence in cyberspace.
a) It's wrong to suggest this hack is like an act of war.
b) It's wrong to suggest USG could lawfully use military force in response.
c) Public officials/commentators should react with awareness that USG hacks foreign govts' networks on a huge scale.
3. On reciprocity: Jack argues that USG's aggressive disruption of Russia’s Internet Research Agency (IRA) in 2018 opens door to other countries' engaging in similar disruptive actions against US for espionage.👇
But that erroneously conflates IRA’s actions with espionage.
“The actual and perceived control...could easily be used to undermine public and consumer trust in data, written communications and services. In the networks that the Russians control, they have the power to destroy or alter data, and impersonate legitimate people.”
“According to SolarWinds SEC filings, the malware was on the software from March to June. The number of orgs. that downloaded the corrupted update could be as many as 18,000, which includes most federal government unclassified networks and more than 425 Fortune 500 companies.”
2. News via @Militarydotcom: "At least eight former service members and Blackwater security guards convicted of war crimes have filed petitions seeking pardons...including a former Army staff sergeant [Robert Bales] who pleaded guilty to killing 16 Afghan men, women and children"
I'm thankful to work with professionals at @just_security who have such excellence in judgment, analysis, and intellect and who also happen to be wonderful people:
"The President-elect should submit...the names of candidates for high level national security positions...AS SOON AS POSSIBLE after the date of the general elections"