2) Potential scenario is infection through drainage system. U-traps typically act as water seals in each bathroom. But they can dry out if unused allowing aerosols from one unit to travel to another.
3) Thus is an amazingly detailed epidemiological study. They ruled out all other forms of transmission because the infected families had no other contact in their high rise. ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
4) was it from elevator or ventilation ducts? Unlikely, because a) people who shared elevator but not part of same vertical drain pipe didn’t get infected. And b) the PCR tests of the building was negative in elector and ventilation. But positive for bathrooms.
5) Also remember your bathtubs and floor drains you don’t use often—their U-shaped drain is not visible like a sink’s is. And they can get dried out over time very easily. Thus, your rarely used floor drain and unused baths are just as risky.
6) Don’t believe it? Well we know it’s happened before with the old SARS Coronavirus outbreak in 2003 in Hong Kong Amoy Gardens. Basically same thing happened that led to that outbreak.
8) This fecal aerosol outbreak AGAIN happened in Feb 2020 during Hong Kong’s first wave, in another HK high rise. History not only rhymes, it also directly repeats.
9) This was my Feb 10 2020 warning on the Hong Kong high rise evacuation based on @carlquintanilla’s reporting of the toilet vent pipe issue. Remember those early days Carl?
10) there’s been many other fecal related transmissions. Not all aerosols, but just further confirms the fecal risk. Here is another sewage pipe leak #COVID19 study.
BREAKING—95%—new data from Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine shows 95% efficacy & is “100% effective” in preventing severe 🏥illness, says AZ CEO. That’s on par w/ Moderna & Pfizer. No official data yet, but UK 🇬🇧 said to likely approve in days. HUGE🧵. #COVID19 thetimes.co.uk/article/covid-…
2) As u know, Oxford was unhappy with the last trial because of the dosing quirk with the half dose / full dose issue that led to a split finding of 90% in the half-full dose, but 63% in the full-full dose. Hence they said last month they will redo with a new trial.
3) Recall the original Phase 3 trial last month was still quite good. 70% overall (averaging across all doses), or 90% in the half-full dose. Oxford was the FIRST to publish formally in a journal! Moderna & Pfizer didn’t publish until later even though they were approved first.
📍Sobering—1 out of every 1,000 people living in the US 🇺🇸 has died of #COVID19–residents, not just among cases.
330,000 are just diagnosed COVID deaths. US has accumulated now *420,000 excess deaths* compared to average of a many prior years.
Please stay safe. Thread 🧵
2) Excess deaths have occurred in every group over the age of 25. And it’s not just the elderly.
3) Rely in just vaccine? No. The Trump administration goal was 20,000,000 vaccinated by end of 2020... we have only vaccinated merely 1 million.... only 5% of that goal! We only have days left. google.com/amp/s/mobile.r…
📍9% of patients discharged after hospitalization for #COVID19 were readmitted within 2 months, says a new @CDCMMWR study. 1.6% were readmitted more than once. Circulatory, respiratory, or digestive systems were most common readmission diagnoses. jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/…
2) We also cannot forgot cognitive deficits seen in #COVID19 patients. Here is a detailed thread of the evidence on cognitive function. 👇
3) Notably, more worrisome, cognitive decline in recovered #COVID19 patients was found across severity level—largest among those hospitalized (& also among those not hospitalized). How big a decline in hospitalized patients? *equivalent to -8.5 IQ point drop.* (link in 🧵 above)
BREAKING—US CDC will require negative coronavirus test for all airline passengers from 🇬🇧 starting Dec 28th— test must be within 3 days of flight. Either PCR or rapid tests acceptable. Pax must submit results to airlines. #COVID19washingtonpost.com/local/traffica…
2) “British officials have been alarmed at the swift spread of the new variant and are also concerned about an even faster-spreading mutation identified in South Africa. Researchers say there is no evidence either variant is more deadly, & optimistic existing vaccines will work.
3) “It is also possible the vaccines could quickly be updated if changes are needed, they said.
“Viruses constantly change through mutation, and preliminary analysis in the UK suggests that this new variant may be up to 70% more transmissible than previous,” the CDC said.
USA 🇺🇸 ranks—#43 in % 🧬 sequenced. So #winning, not.🧵
2) “Given the small fraction of U.S. infections that have been sequenced, the variant could already be in the United States without having been detected,” the CDC wrote on its website.
3) Remember the old saying, “No testing, no pandemic”?
📌Same goes for virus mutations. “No sequencing, no new mutated variants”
➡️We can’t be ostrich in the sand about this. To stop pandemic, we have to stay ahead of it—know when it’s changing or becoming more contagious.