USA 🇺🇸 ranks—#43 in % 🧬 sequenced. So #winning, not.🧵
2) “Given the small fraction of U.S. infections that have been sequenced, the variant could already be in the United States without having been detected,” the CDC wrote on its website.
3) Remember the old saying, “No testing, no pandemic”?
📌Same goes for virus mutations. “No sequencing, no new mutated variants”
➡️We can’t be ostrich in the sand about this. To stop pandemic, we have to stay ahead of it—know when it’s changing or becoming more contagious.
4) new data on viral load of the new UK mutation... I wrote a thread yesterday on it.
5) wow... Another way to view this—my FAS team graphed the rate of genomic sequenced 🧬 virus samples per million #COVID19 cases...
UK 🇬🇧 sequenced 23x more than the USA 🇺🇸.
—superb job to 🇬🇧 scientist
—We will not find new mutation fast enough in US this way.
6) “It’s like a giant canvas where one corner has been painted in extraordinary detail but rest is blank. No matter how vivid that one corner might be, it can’t illuminate the whole picture.”
7) “current situation is reminiscent of the pandemic’s early days, when virus first detected in Wuhan, and U.S. officials enacted a travel ban against visitors from China — w/out realizing virus was already spreading through Europe and would soon make its way to US from there.”
8) “to truly solve this problem, federal officials need to increase the nation’s disease surveillance efforts, and in particular its genomic surveillance. Until they do that, we will be stuck in the same place: making often brutal sacrifices to try to slow the spread”
9) UK also was able to trace the location of 67,000 (not 63k) carriers of the new B.1.1.7 mutation. They were able to do this via a shortcut PCR test for the new variant (this is in addition to the full genomic virus sequencing)
BREAKING—US CDC will require negative coronavirus test for all airline passengers from 🇬🇧 starting Dec 28th— test must be within 3 days of flight. Either PCR or rapid tests acceptable. Pax must submit results to airlines. #COVID19washingtonpost.com/local/traffica…
2) “British officials have been alarmed at the swift spread of the new variant and are also concerned about an even faster-spreading mutation identified in South Africa. Researchers say there is no evidence either variant is more deadly, & optimistic existing vaccines will work.
3) “It is also possible the vaccines could quickly be updated if changes are needed, they said.
“Viruses constantly change through mutation, and preliminary analysis in the UK suggests that this new variant may be up to 70% more transmissible than previous,” the CDC said.
2) Potential scenario is infection through drainage system. U-traps typically act as water seals in each bathroom. But they can dry out if unused allowing aerosols from one unit to travel to another.
3) Thus is an amazingly detailed epidemiological study. They ruled out all other forms of transmission because the infected families had no other contact in their high rise. ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
2) “When patients get really sick with Covid, they’re in the hospital for weeks,” said Dr. Arghavan Salles, a physician who has worked in I.C.U.s in New York and Arizona over the course of the pandemic.
3) “When patients get really sick with Covid, they’re in the hospital for weeks,” said Dr. @arghavan_salles, a physician who has worked in I.C.U.s in New York and Arizona over the course of the pandemic.
2) Outside Greater London, the variant has higher viral loads. Within Greater London, the new variant does not have significantly higher viral loads. But this could be due to demographics, such as a faster variant growth rate in particular age-groups.
3) So is it higher or not? Or is it some London / non-London effect? ➡️ it’s really higher.
➡️In a multivariable model (adjusting mutually), what won was the B.1.1.7 variant’s 501Y mutation as key—**higher viral load**
❌London/other region interaction effect not significant.