Bhau rightly points out that the appointment of trade union leader Bhai Jagtap as Mumbai Congress chief is a good move as he is an ambitious leader, unlike the earlier chiefs.
Cong which used to get anti Sena vote has lost it to the BJP in 2017 in Mumbai, as BJP is oppn to Sena
Bhai Jagtap is talking of Cong fighting on its own in BMC. There could be three reasons why he is talking like that, 1. Congress has lost strength in Mumbai. From 70 odd wards won in 2007 to 50 odd in 2012 and finally 30 odd in 2017, it has been a downward graph.
Cong is longer number 2 party in Mumbai. It is number 3 party in Mumbai after BJP and Sena. It has lost its anti Sena vote in Mumbai to the BJP.
The rise of Modi and Yogi has ensured that Hindi bhashik vote which was Congress mainstay is now with the BJP.
2. It is pressure tactic on the Sena to get more seats in case the Central leadership asks the Mumbai Cong unit to ally with Sena. Cong settling for less than 100 seats (total 227) may he humiliating for the Congress. So the blackmailing tactic could help it get more seats
3. Third point is my opinion Congress could be fighting separately to deny the anti Sena vote in the BMC election. This helps the Sena sail through in few wards due to vote division of anti incumbency votes. Also Cong gains a few seats to add muscle to its post poll position.
Though it is unlikely as Cong cannot speak beyond a point against the Sena in BMC, while being in bed with Sena in the state govt. BJP will use the opportunity to taunt Congress and dare it to come out of the MVA govt. Power hungry Congress leaders will eat crumbs to be in power
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BJP has potential to win one more seat in Dahisar (Ward 1) where Ram Yadav of BJP had revolted and his wife had fought as an independent (reserved for women) and she came number 2. BJP official candidate stood 4th. Now Ram Yadav is back in BJP.
MVA govt n Uddhav opposed Modi's pet project bullet train despite knowing that Mumbai - Ahmedabad is just the first stage of Mumbai - Ahmedabad - Delhi route.
Then u unwisely move the metro yard from best location Aarey to unwieldy Kanjur marg knowing litigation
Centre has always been claiming the land through salt department. It is not a new stand after 2019. But still CM did this only coz his son wanted it this way.
Now when courts have stopped the work, and no other solution seems possible Uddhav is talking of reconciliation on this.
They hope to strike a bargain on the bullet train project and Kanjur marg metro yard. Knowing Modi this does not seem possible. But MVA is still trying by putting name of Pawar into this.
Pawar himself may be using this opportunity to talk to Modi on other issues as well
Most likely scenario in municipal elections in Mumbai. Sena fighting 130 odd and Congress less than 100 might be unacceptable to both. So seat adjustment in polls and post poll alliance might be the game
In mixed population ward, if BJP candidate was a Gujarati or Hindi bhashik; Congress would field a similar candidate to cause vote division. This would enable the Sena candidate dependent on Marathi votes to scrape through.
Plus Sena and Congress would make deals on wards. For example Waikar of Sena and Naseem Khan of Congress would make a deal to leave Jogeshwari wards to Sena and Chandivali/Powai wards to Congress.
Sena would not mobilize voters where alliance partner BJP would fight
Simple rule why Modi govt is unlikely to rollback farm laws and may choose middle path of giving concessions to farm lobby,
These farm laws have started helping farmers in multiple states. Anecdotal evidence suggests that mandi volumes are decreasing. 1/n
Farmers are already benefitting in terms of prices they get as private players are buying outside APMCs. Taxes saved due to out of APMC trades leads to some more price benefit being passed to farmers.
So rolling back the farm bills could actually cost votes to Modi govt. 2/n
And electoral cost is something which no political party or leader will unnecessary pay.
Why pander to protesting farmers who are unlikely to vote for you (in Punjab) and unnecessarily antagonize farmers who are your base.
This is a no brainer. 3/n
Let us blame Sena of giving poor governance and being stupid in trying to get open vendetta against those opposing it. They never had the brains. But you cannot fault them for self preservation.
Alliance with BJP benefitted them a lot in the start and even now in LS/VS seat count
But there was a cost. BJP is steadily pushing out Sena from areas where it was dominant earlier.2 examples are Dahisar and Goregaon where BJP won in 2014 defeating Sena big leaders.BJP retained those seats in 2019 in the alliance seat sharing. And will win them even in BJP vs MVA
Even in Bhandup where Sena was the major party, new demographic changes due to high rises that have come up on LBS road have allowed BJP to win 2 corporators there unthinkable some time ago). Same thing is happening in Thane, Navi Mumbai, Panvel and many other places in MMR
My two cents on the story of Geeta Jain @connectGEETA joining Sena. She was a BJP rebel who fought n won Mira Bhayander seat in 2019.
She got the sympathy of BJP voters due to her I'll treatment by unpopular sitting BJP MLA and candidate Narendra Mehta
If Jain is now joining Sena then these are some factors, 1. Short term gains, funds for ger constituency and one more reason could be her husband is a builder. 2. She feels this MCA govt is here to stay for atleast two more years. So why waste the post in opposition
3. She thinks she could win in the next election on a Sena ticket, but which seems difficult to me given the demography. 4. Sena has burnt a lot of bridges with non Marathi voters (and even a lot of Marathi voters) due to SSR and Kangana case.Could be attempt by Penguin to expand